Most Anti-Trump GOP voters loyal in 2022 but not all

WASHINGTON — Rep. Lauren Boebert’s grip on Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District didn’t seem in question heading into last year’s midterms. But in the end, the congresswoman who gained a national reputation as a combative member of the “Make America Great Again” movement won reelection by just 564 votes.

“This was supposed to be a slam dunk for the Republican candidate, the way the district is designed,” said Don Coram, a former state senator who unsuccessfully challenged Boebert in the GOP primary last June.

Boebert’s near miss was emblematic of the difficulties Republicans confronted in 2022 and may face again in 2024. While former President Donald Trump holds a tight grasp on much of the GOP base, there is a notable minority of Republican voters who do not consider themselves MAGA members.

Most of them, as faithful Republicans, backed GOP candidates in 2022, AP VoteCast shows. Still, the extensive national survey finds these Republicans made up a larger percentage of those who opted not to support a candidate in House races. A sliver of them showed their opposition to Trump for a second time, backing Democrat Joe Biden for president in 2020 and Democratic House candidates in 2022.

In a political climate where competitive elections are nationalized and decided by narrow margins, neither party can take these voters for granted.

Democrat Adam Frisch said he knew there was a “fairly unique” opening for a more conservative Democrat to connect with Colorado voters who did not like Boebert’s aggressive style.

“I spent most of my time trying to convince people I was a safe enough choice, not just to leave the ballot blank ... but actually vote for a non-Republican for the first time ever or in a really long time,” said Frisch, who has already announced he will run again in 2024.

The findings suggest Democrats, too, may need to be wary of the messaging against “MAGA Republicans,” whom Biden hammered repeatedly before the November elections and is poised to do again in a 2024 campaign. Most of those who don’t identify with the movement don’t seem to find that compelling.

Republican strategist Alex Conant suggested GOP candidates cannot count on these voters so long as Trump is involved in politics. But 2024 can be different.

“There’s no reason that the Republican nominee in 2024 can’t put together a coalition that includes Trump’s base and moderate Republicans and independents,” he said.