China looming large as Taiwan goes to polls
Ruling party, reviled by Beijing, seeks record third term Saturday
Nearly four decades ago, a group of lawyers, intellectuals and activists assembled in a hotel ballroom in Taipei to found an illegal political party dedicated to ending authoritarian rule in Taiwan.
No longer a scrappy upstart, the Democratic Progressive Party, born in that ballroom, is now seeking an unprecedented third consecutive term. It needs to convince voters that after eight years in power, the party can renew itself while also protecting Taiwan from mounting pressures imposed by Beijing, which claims the island as its territory.
Led by Vice President Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate, the DPP faces a stiff challenge in an election Saturday from its chief rival, the Nationalist Party, which favors expanded ties with China.
Polls have indicated the Nationalists, led by Hou Yu-ih, a former police officer and the mayor of New Taipei City, may have a fighting chance of returning to power for the first time since 2016, an outcome that could reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape.
Election results are expected by Saturday night.
For Su Chiao-hui, a lawmaker with the Democratic Progressive Party, the stakes of the vote are especially personal. Her father, Su Tseng-chang, helped found the party when Taiwan was under martial law and later served as a premier in both the party’s two phases in power, including under the current president, Tsai Ing-wen.
“I’m a child of the DPP,” Su, a lawyer, said in an interview, recalling seeing her father take part in democracy demonstrations. “Those are the memories in my bones, my daily life, so I didn’t need to march on the streets to know that politics can have a big impact.”
The challenge for Su and her generation of DPP politicians is to convince voters the party can deliver the right mix of change and continuity: Change in response to concerns about slowing growth, rising housing prices and other livelihood issues; continuity in assurances a new DPP administration would not rock Tsai’s measured approach to China and is best qualified to keep Taiwan safe.
Over the past decade, the question of Taiwan’s future has become a flashpoint in tensions between China and the United States, shaping debates in Washington and globally.
The DPP, which has long rejected Beijing’s demands for unification, has been at the heart of transforming the island into a geopolitical bastion against Chinese power. Tsai has worked to steer Taiwan out of China’s orbit, enhancing ties with Washington and raising the island’s global profile.
But after two terms, Tsai must step down this year. Polls indicate sizable numbers of Taiwanese voters would like fresh leadership. A growing number worry about rising risks of conflict with China, which has denounced the DPP as a party of separatists and has cast Taiwan’s election as a “choice between war and peace.”
Lai has vowed to continue Tsai’s steady course. Yet even if Lai wins, his party may well lose its majority in Taiwan’s legislature, giving the opposition greater influence.
Su, 47, is working to persuade voters to give the party four more years of majority rule to allow Lai to advance his agenda if he wins. She courts voters at night markets and crossroads, accompanied by “Otter Mama,” her bespectacled, pink-clad campaign mascot, who features on a children’s show promoting the local Taiwanese language.
Her father, Su Tseng-chang, 76, an energetic speaker at election rallies across Taiwan, sees the party’s legacy at stake — as well as his own.
“We have worked so hard to finally get out of authoritarianism and finally achieve democracy, freedom and openness,” he said. “If we cannot hold onto these achievements and instead turn back, then I’m afraid that the lifelong struggles and striving of my contemporaries will be in vain.”
The DPP candidate, Lai, has led the polls in recent weeks, but by a narrow margin. Hou, the Nationalists’ candidate, has trailed by a few percentage points in many polls. And an insurgent candidate — Ko Wen-je, the leader of the Taiwan People’s Party — has eroded support for both parties, especially among younger voters.