Israel weighs its retaliation for barrage
Commitment to response, but leaders don’t want to alienate allies or waste chance to build broad coalition against Iran
JERUSALEM — Israel’s war cabinet deliberated Monday how to respond to Iran’s unprecedented aerial assault without rankling allies and squandering an opportunity to build an international alliance against Tehran.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asked the Israel Defense Forces to provide a target list, according to an official familiar with high-level discussions, who said Israel is mulling retaliation that would “send a message” but not cause casualties.
The options include a potential strike on a facility in Tehran or a cyberattack, according to the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks.
“Everybody agrees that Israel must respond,” the official said. “How to respond, when to respond, is the question.”
The United States, United Nations and Israel’s European and regional allies have all called for restraint following the Iranian barrage of more than 300 drones and missiles overnight Saturday.
The five-hour, carefully choreographed onslaught — in response to an Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria that killed two senior commanders this month — caused limited damage after being repelled by an international alliance including the United States, France and Britain, with assistance from some countries in the Middle East.
The expansive security cooperation stood in contrast to Israel’s recent isolation over the civilian toll of its war against Hamas in Gaza and gave the country what analysts described as a rare chance to assemble an anti-Iran coalition.
“As much as these are dire times, this is a huge opportunity,” said Udi Sommer, a politics professor at Tel Aviv University and the City University of New York. “Sometimes you get a second chance in life, and Israel just got one.”
But if Israel miscalculates, he said, prioritizing a short-term show of strength ahead of longer-term strategic considerations, the opportunity could slip away.
A restrained military response will reap rewards for Israel on the world stage, Sommer added, helping repair its frayed relationship with the United States and with its Arab neighbors.
“Israel has the ability to get this international coalition in place, keep it, and then deal with the hostage crisis and make sure that next time we look in the mirror, we see a country that we recognize.”
He pointed to the prudence of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir when faced with the threat of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s scud missiles in the 1990s, which he said helped Israel enhance regional peace treaties and strengthen international alliances.
“It had international benefits that were orders of magnitude greater than Israel would have reaped from any military attack,” he said. “Today it’s the same story.”
The United States has pledged its full support for Israel while urging de-escalation, arguing in public statements and private conversations the successful repelling of the Iranian attack was victory enough. Washington has also emphasized it won’t participate in whatever military response Israel is planning.
European leaders Monday morning reiterated their concerns about the potential for the regional security situation to spiral. “The right thing to do is not to escalate,” British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said in a BBC television interview. “We are urging them as friends to think with head as well as heart, to be smart as well as tough, and to recognize that Iran suffered this defeat, because the attack was a failure.”
French President Emmanuel Macron expressed similar sentiments: “We are all worried about a possible escalation,” Macron told French radio.
Israeli officials said they were mindful of the concerns.
“Our allies do not want us to go for an over-the-top response, and we want to work with our allies, especially after the success we enjoyed with them,” the Israeli official said. “We don’t have to cause casualties but it’s important that we do respond, because it sends a message to all those who want to harm us.”
A strike will do little to help Israel in its battle against Tehran’s proxies in the region and concerns over its nuclear program, said Yair Golan, former deputy IDF chief of staff.
“On different levels of intensity, Israel has been fighting Iran for years,” he said. “It will not stop tomorrow or the next day. And it will not stop if Israel reacts right now.”
“Iran has escalated the war,” Golan explained. “But Israel needs to act smartly in order to strengthen the regional and global front against them.”