For Trump, first scheme to deceive voters worked

We made it. The day finally arrived for the historic trial in Manhattan, N.Y., of former President Donald Trump on charges of falsifying business documents. The case concerns Trump’s scheme to conceal embarrassing information from voters in the 2016 election. Derided as a “rump” case, or “trivial,” it actually might be the most consequential of the four criminal cases facing the former president.

“This is the case that reflects the efforts Trump went through to influence the 2016 election — and it worked. He won the election,” wrote Karen Friedman Agnifilo, who worked for decades in the Manhattan district attorney’s office. “And he only won by a slim margin of fewer than 80,000 votes in three swing states.” Trump sought to buy off two women who said they had sexual encounters with him — Trump denies that — because he not unreasonably feared he would lose if, in the wake of the Access Hollywood tape, those allegations had come out.

Agnifilo wrote: “What if, on the heels of the release of the Access Hollywood tape right before the 2016 election, where Trump boasts of grabbing women’s genitals without their consent, that he was able suppress from voters the fact that he had extramarital affairs with both adult film star Stormy Daniels, and former Playboy Bunny Karen McDougal, was the key to his victory by this slim margin?”

You don’t have to believe Agnifilo. That’s also essentially how Judge Juan Merchan will summarize the case to prospective jurors.

If you doubt the importance of this case, consider an alternate history: Trump never silenced these women, Hillary Clinton won, three right-wing justices did not get appointed, Roe v. Wade remained law, and Trump never had the chance to attempt a coup in the aftermath of the 2020 election. Much depended on the facts set out in the indictment.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has not changed his theory of the case. What has changed is the slow realization among commentators the case revolves around allegations that, if proved, would amount to Trump’s first — and only successful — attempt to use deception and illegal means to gain power.

The case that began Monday is not frivolous, minor or particularly prurient. The first trial of a former president has grave importance as a means of holding Trump accountable for the scheme that lifted him to power. It marks the first instance of Trump maneuvering to win an election through deception. To boot, a multi-count felony conviction might result in prison time. That might explain why Trump has been so desperate to delay it.