Haley hits the ground running in NH
Has days to beat Trump in nation’s 1st primary
EXETER, N.H – Shaking off a thirdplace finish in ruby red Iowa, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has a new goal: toppling former President Donald Trump in the purple state of New Hampshire.
Haley’s campaign was dealt a blow Monday when, after all her efforts, Iowa caucusgoers chose Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over her by about 2,000 votes – and gave Trump the biggest victory in Iowa caucus history.
Yet the Haley campaign is clinging to a message that the 2024 presidential election is now a two-person competition. In her Iowa concession speech, Haley urged Granite State voters to pick her, saying, “Our campaign is the last best hope of stopping the Trump-Biden nightmare.”
Haley jetted straight to New Hampshire, where she campaigned Tuesday with Gov. Chris Sununu in an area that borders liberal Vermont and is known for voters with an independent streak. New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation primary takes place Jan. 23.
“It would be a tough mountain to climb to pull off a win, but it’s actually plausible. It’s doable,” Sununu said.
“Her message is resonating,” said Kim Rice, Haley’s New Hampshire cochair.
Is NH a two-person race?
Haley’s campaign circulated a survey Tuesday from a New Hampshire–based research group showing her and Trump in a dead heat at 40%, with DeSantis trailing far behind at 4%.
But the Florida governor doesn’t appear to be dropping out anytime soon. He began the next phase of his campaign Tuesday with an event in Greenville, South Carolina – a state that will not hold its primary for more than a month. He headed to western New Hampshire Tuesday afternoon.
Trump campaigned Tuesday in Atkinson, an affluent town in southeastern New Hampshire near the Massachusetts border.
Even if DeSantis were to drop out, it wouldn’t necessarily help Haley, pollster Andrew Smith said.
Nearly half of Christie’s New Hampshire supporters said they would pick Haley as their second choice in a USA TODAY/Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll fielded before Christie ended his campaign. But almost 50% of likely DeSantis voters said Trump was their second choice.
Supporters of entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who ended his campaign Monday after ranking fourth in Iowa, similarly trended toward Trump, whom he immediately endorsed.
The magic 40%
Only 4% of New Hampshire voters remain undecided, according to the USA TODAY/Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll. But they could make a big impact on a close race.
Joseph Gagnon, a 25-year-old consultant from Londonderry, said he doesn’t know which candidate he’ll pick or which issues will sway him.
“I like Trump because of what he did as president of the United States. I like Ron DeSantis because of what he’s been able to do down in Florida. I love Nikki Haley. As U.N. ambassador she made us feel like we were first on the world stage,” the Republican voter told USA TODAY. “I’m still waiting to see.”
However, the window is closing for non-Trump candidates to carve a pathway to the nomination.
“It’s going to be very hard for (Haley) to overcome the gap between her and Trump, no matter what the size of that gap is,” said Smith, head of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
For two decades, the winner of the New Hampshire primary has clinched the GOP nomination. This year, Trump is heavily favored to win New Hampshire – and if he does, pollsters say it’s a good bet that he’ll be the party’s nominee.
Candidates who garner 40% of the vote in New Hampshire typically win the state, said Smith, and most polls show Trump hovering around that threshold.
That’s a contrast to the 2016 Republican primary, when eight candidates split the vote and allowed Trump to win New Hampshire with a plurality rather than a majority.
Haley at least has a strategic plan about how she can remain in the race, said Matt Gorman, a veteran GOP strategist who served as senior adviser to Tim Scott’s presidential campaign.
But “she can’t waste a day,” he said.
Endorsements and allies
Haley’s campaign has just a week to pick up key endorsements and mobilize voters.
Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan endorsed her at the start of the week. However, in a move that shocked some of Haley’s top supporters, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio gave his support to Trump over the weekend. Haley endorsed Rubio’s presidential bid in 2016.
So did former GOP candidate and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum. In his Monday victory speech, Trump suggested he’d give Burgum a position in his next administration.
One of Haley’s best assets in New Hampshire could be a conservative group that in the last two months has been doing much of the heavy lifting.
Americans for Prosperity Action says it has talked with 170,000 households in the state since Nov. 28 and will be sending people to New Hampshire to campaign for Haley leading into next week’s primary.
The group has spent $27 million boosting Haley with ads in early primary states, with spots stressing Haley’s potential strength against President Joe Biden in a general election.
Haley’s campaign is also up with a New Hampshire ad emphasizing both Trump and Biden’s negative approval ratings.
“The question before Americans is now very clear: Do you want more of the same? Or do you want a new generation of conservative leadership?” Haley told voters from Iowa after the caucus.
“Trump and Biden both lack a vision for our country’s future, because both are consumed by the past, by investigations, by vendettas, by grievances. America deserves better,” she said.