Cam Newton must target Raiders’ CBs for success
Pats must target Raiders’ CBs
The greatest values of the Patriots’ loss at Seattle were of the moral variety.
The idea being despite their defeat, the Pats proved they can hang with a contender. The belief that it unmasked some of the uncertainty surrounding a franchise led by a new quarterback in a new era, revealing the fortitude and makeup of a playoff team.
But the thing about moral victories is they need affirmation as soon as possible. Because by following one defeat with another Sunday, the Patriots will only prove
one thing: they can lose two straight just like anyone else. On the other hand, beating the Raiders would avoid such despair, validate the 35-30 Seahawks loss and inspire further hope.
Here’s how the Pats can move to 2-1:
1. Put playmakers in space
The NFL’s virtual offseason and lack of a preseason may have hit Las Vegas’ defense harder than most. Through two weeks, it appears they’ve forgotten how to tackle.
The Raiders are the third-worst tackling team in the league, racking up 25 whiffs during their wins over the Panthers and Saints. Linebackers Cory Littleton and Nicholas Morrow are the worst offenders at four misses apiece. All of Vegas’ top defensive backs have at least two.
The Pats can capitalize on the Raiders’ poor fundamentals by isolating Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry and perhaps even
rookie running back J. J. Taylor against defenders 1-on-1. Harry leads the team with two broken tackles and is their most-targeted player on screens.
Expect a heavy dose of those Sunday.
2. Dial up tendencybreakers
As film piles up on the Patriots’ new offense, tendencies will develop and grow strong. Tendency has arguably already bitten the Pats at the goal line in Seattle, where they still could have won despite linebacker Bobby Wagner predicting the Cam Newton power run he eventually helped stop. While every team is at the mercy of tendency, the Patriots can easily break theirs by running counter plays off their new favorites -- like power -that they’ve yet to unveil.
Doing so should put Las Vegas in a bind.
“We do have a pretty good background of what Cam’s been able to do,” Raiders coach Jon Gruden said this week. “We also have an expectation of where they’re going with certain personnel groupings.”
It could be as simple as passing more frequently from 21 personnel (packages with two running backs and one tight end), from which they’ve run 73% of the time. Or dialing up new plays from the double jumbo package the Pats have
deployed time and again at the goal line. It’s time to try something new.
3. Target CBs Damon Arnette, Lamarcus Joyner
First-round rookie cornerback Damon Arnette may one day develop into a solid cornerback. That day is unlikely to be Sunday.
Per Pro Football Focus, Arnette has surrendered catches on eight of nine targets this season for 151 yards and a touchdown. His three missed tackles rank third-worst on the team. He’s also committed two penalties. Throwing often at Arnette should eventually yield positive plays for Newton.
In the slot, veteran Lamarcus Joyner has become a punching bag for opposing quarterbacks, seeing a team-high 16 targets. While his coverage has been stickier than Arnette’s, he presents a mismatch for Edelman when the Patriots deploy three wide receivers. Edelman beat him for one reception in their last meeting, Super Bowl LIII, when Joyner played safety for the Rams.
Littleton, another former Ram, bears watching in coverage, too. He was targeted a game-high 10 times in that Super Bowl and, despite his label as a coverage linebacker, is allowing a completion percentage of 77% to opposing passers so far this season. The Pats’ best single-play recipe may be to pit him 1-on-1 versus Taylor or Rex Burkhead out of the backfield and wait for him to break down.