Let’s make a deal
Featuring Gilmore, Harry and a franchise quarterback
Four trades that would make sense for the Patriots ahead of this month’s NFL Draft
There is no surer bet than Bill Belichick on the most unpredictable weekend of the NFL calendar.
The Patriots front office is a lock to trade up and down the draft board every year, hunting for value as it annually reloads one of the league’s oldest rosters. Belichick has a proclivity for trading down, believing draft success stems more from holstering more picks than the highest ones. As the owners of one of the NFL’s smallest draft boards, the Pats recognize they usually can wait on top targets, who should still be available after other teams have picked from a larger prospect pool.
This year, that could all change.
Patriots owner Robert Kraft said earlier this month he believes the front office has altered its draft formula. So it’s possible the Patriots could vault from their first pick at 15th overall into the top 10 — or perhaps five — to land their quarterback of the future. However, such a move would be unprecedented, and require Belichick to believe that the asking price to trade up is palatable and the fourth or fifth passer taken in this year’s class is a potential franchise quarterback; a historical outlier.
Is this likely? No. But not impossible.
Therefore, keeping all scenarios on the table, here are four viable trades we’d like to see the Patriots strike that cover every reason why they might move: trading up for a quarterback, trading up for a nonquarterback, trading down, or trading for the future.
Trade up
Patriots receive: 4th overall pick from the Falcons
Falcons receive: 15th overall pick, 46th overall pick, a 2022 first-round pick, cornerback Stephon Gilmore
The moment the 49ers traded up to acquire the No. 3 overall pick last month, sending three firstround picks and a thirdrounder to Miami, the Falcons should have raised a glass.
They were the undisputed winners of that deal, a historic move by the Niners to position themselves to draft a franchise quarterback. Other teams looking to trade up must now deal with Atlanta, owner of the No. 4 overall pick in what’s widely considered a five-quarterback draft, which is expected to open with quarterbacks on the first three picks.
So what should it take to move up? More or less, what San Francisco surrendered.
Therefore, the Pats send two first-round picks, their second-rounder this year — an upgrade over San Fran’s traded 2022 thirdrounder — and Gilmore, who balances out that upgrade by providing second-round value in place of a third first-round pick. Any trade talks with the Falcons will begin with the baseline the 49ers established, though the math has changed on those negotiations. Because of the 49ers’ jump, only two of the five best quarterbacks will be available at No. 4, and the number of Atlanta’s potential trading partners has come down, with San Francisco and Carolina now out of the mix.
Having lost that leverage, the Pats should be able to use Gilmore, their best trade chip, in a package of picks to successfully trade up — if they so desire. The only hurdle will be the Falcons fitting Gilmore’s $7.36 million cap hit on their crunched 2021 books and striking a long-term deal to secure him for years to come.
Trade down
Patriots receive: 20th overall pick, 52nd overall pick
Bears receive: 15th overall pick, 96th overall pick, 139th overall pick
Speaking of leverage,
any team dealing with Chicago’s front office should have it easy in the next few months.
Bears general manager Ryan Pace and head coach Matt Nagy are on borrowed time, indicating they’ll be in win-now mode with any draft trade.
In this scenario, the Patriots slide back five spots — assuming the top wideouts and cornerbacks have been taken — and add a second-round pick. The price is their third-rounder and one of three fourthround picks. By sticking in the middle of the first round, they stay ahead of teams with similar boards, namely the Titans and Ravens.
While a trade back might cause the larger fan base to bristle, imagine the Patriots adding a secondround pick and still grabbing Florida wide receiver Karaius Toney in the first? Not bad.
Trade up for a non-QB
Patriots receive: 12th overall pick
Eagles receive: 15th overall pick, 120th overall pick, WR N’Keal Harry
According to reports, the Pats have hit speed bumps on their way to dumping Harry. Their ask
ing price — at least a fourth-round pick — is too high for teams in a straight-up deal.
Come draft day, they find a solution.
The Pats call the Eagles, who have openly entered a full rebuild. Philadelphia general manager Howie Roseman, one of the more analytics-friendly decision-makers in the league, has indicated a willingness to trade back, already jumping from sixth overall in a deal with Miami last month. Philadelphia also needs wide receiver help, so the Patriots ship a fourth-round pick and Harry — who provides fifth-round value — down I-95 to leap three spots.
Belichick’s motivation here is to nab an elite talent that’s slipped in the draft, with the top five quarterbacks already off the board. At No. 12, the Pats could conceivably draft Alabama wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, Alabama cornerback Patrick Surtain Jr., South Carolina cornerback Jaycee Horn or Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons.
Trade for the future
Patriots receive: 2022 first-round pick, 106th overall pick
Jaguars receive: 15th overall pick
Surveying the NFL landscape, and it’s a safe bet Jacksonville will pick higher than 15th next season. That is, in all likelihood, unless you ask the Jaguars.
With this trade, the Pats take advantage of a young regime’s overconfidence and happily deal their initial pick for a future firstrounder and the opening pick of the fourth round. This allows the front office to operate from a position of strength to start Day 3, either exchanging it for multiple picks or selecting a Day 2 talent who’s slipped.
New Jags general manager Trent Baalke has a history of trading up in the first round, following his first stint running the front office in San Francisco. He also prefers bigger players, particularly on defense, and has a track record of taking on players considered to be character risks. Given Urban Meyer’s familiarity with the Big Ten, Parsons could motivate the Jags to jump from 25th overall, their second of two first-round picks, or send a future first-rounder to New England in a draftday deal.