Reading state of economy: not business as usual

If you’re having difficulty figuring out the direction of the state’s economy, you’re not alone.

In this incremental return to a normal, post- COVID business environment, mixed messages continue to cloud the picture.

These recent statistics present a case in point.

The statewide unemployment rate rose from 5% percent to 5.2% in September, labor officials announced last week.

The largest industry-specific gains in September occurred in education and health services other services, trade, transportation and utilities and leisure and hospitality.

Construction, professional and business services, and government all shed positions last month.

While September’s jobless rate was the highest in Massachusetts since the 6.4% reported in April, it’s still more than 3 percentage points below the 8.9% labor officials recorded a year ago. Job growth rebounded somewhat from the revised figure of 3,400 positions reported in August, though the pace of growth remains middling.

Some might want to partially blame Gov. Charlie Baker’s vaccine mandate, which went into effect at the beginning of October, for the rise in the unemployment rate.

Baker has denied that notion and noted that 90% of executive branch employees have disclosed their vaccine status.

Since May 2020, Massachusetts has added 474,700 jobs, recovering 72% of the losses experienced in April 2020 amid the COVID-19 crisis.

At the same time, despite supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages restraining economic growth, index readings released Monday show the Massachusetts economy expanding for a sixth straight quarter.

Citizens Bank said the state economy’s third quarter reading was 55, up from 53.1 in the second quarter.

Readings above 50 reflect an expanding economy.

The index draws from a pool of metrics, including manufacturing data, consumer spending, commercial banking data, initial jobless claims, commodity prices, and new business applications.

“With the continued support of low interest rates and fiscal spending initiatives, most sectors seem to have established a healthy trajectory of growth,” said Citizens, which added, “Concerns over higher inflation have increased.”

Those concerns are justified. The nation’s current inflation rate, an unambiguous 5.4%, is more than three times higher than it was in October 2020.

That’s obvious to anyone in charge of household groceries, or for any other purchase of goods and services.

You’ll find the best example of this stark trend in escalating costs when you gas up.

According to AAA and GasBuddy.com, as of Oct. 27, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in Massachusetts was $3.365, about 30 cents cheaper than the national average of $3.394.

A year ago, a gallon of regular cost $2.16.

And a changing post-pandemic work attitude just adds to the overall economic uncertainty.

According to CBS News, nationwide, an unprecedented number of American workers are quitting their jobs, a trend some have dubbed the “Great Resignation.”

It’s affected some states more than others. For instance, more than 4% of workers in Georgia, Kentucky and Idaho left their jobs in August — the highest rate in the country.

Those three states are also among those with the lowest minimum wage — the federal standard of $7.25 an hour. States with more generous minimum wages tended to have a lower “quits” rate.

In Massachusetts, the quitting percentage was in the 2.2-2.6% range.

Nationally, almost 3% of workers handed in their resignations in August — a record.

The number of people quitting rose to 4.3 million, far outpacing the number of layoffs from employers, who cut 1.3 million jobs the same month.

Massachusetts’ simultaneous rise in the jobless rate and economic expansion could turn out to be a statistical anomaly, but there’s no disputing the spiraling inflation rate and restive American workplace.