BREAKING DOWN THE PATRIOTS, AFC EAST
The AFC East proved to be one of the best and most competitive divisions in the conference last season.
That distinction is not likely to change given how the teams have already managed to reload and fortify less than a week into free agency.
What could change, however, is the pecking order from top to bottom.
The Bills, while still the favorite, aren’t a lock to win their fourth straight division title as all of the teams below have their
sights on making a move and unseating the champs.
For starters, the second-place Dolphins have strengthened their defense, most notably with the acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey and linebacker David Long, while the Jets are in the process of seriously upgrading the one position that held them back last season — quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers is headed to the Big Apple if and when the Packers and Jets can work out the details on trade compensation.
The Patriots?
They’ve made some moves, and added some nice players on the offensive side of the ball, although none would qualify as being the type of game- changing talent the Pats lack.
Perhaps they’re banking on Bill O’brien being that gamechanger at the helm of a retooled offense, as the Patriots new offensive coordinator should make a significant difference given the disaster of having Matt Patricia and Joe Judge run the offense last season.
So the Patriots will be better in 2023. The problem? Everyone else below the Bills has also improved.
That said, here’s a breakdown of the four teams in the division, what they’ve done during the offseason, and where they’re headed.
Buffalo Bills
2022 record: 13-3 (first place) Notable additions: G Connor Mcgovern, WR/RET Deonte Harty, QB Kyle Allen. Re-signed — S Jordan Poyer.
Notable losses: DC Leslie Frazier, LB Tremaine Edwards, WR Isaiah Mckenzie.
Best move: Creating muchneeded cap space by restructuring the contracts of Josh Allen, Von Miller and Stefan Diggs.
Head scratcher: More of a curiosity — Is Frazier coming back, or is his departure permanent?
Outlook: They made a big splash in free agency last year, adding Von Miller to boost their pass rush and fix one of their biggest flaws to help put them over the top.
Only they continue to fall short when the playoffs roll around. The mantra was Super Bowl or bust for them last season and they still couldn’t get there.
Their 27-10 loss to the Bengals marked their second straight divisional round exit.
Since then, Frazier, their longtime defensive coordinator, has stepped away for at least a year, so like last year after offensive coordinator Brian Daboll’s departure, the Bills have to adjust to a new play caller. By most accounts, head coach Sean Mcdermott will run the defense.
Player-wise, thanks to restructuring the contracts of Allen, Miller and Diggs the Bills were able to get out of cap jail and create some space to both sign and resign some important players, most notably Poyer, who returned on a twoyear deal.
The Bills would have been trouble at safety if they weren’t able to bring Poyer back. Micah Hyde is the only other safety with any experience. Safety Damar Hamlin, who suffered cardiac arrest during the team’s regular season game against the Bengals, has begun his road back to football, and is hoping to play at some point. But it’s tough for the Bills to count on him being ready to play this season.
Linebacker Matt Milano and punter Sam Martin also signed extensions to free up more money and help the cause.
So it’s possible for the Bills to do more, and add more weapons for Josh Allen, while also improving the defense in the coming days and weeks. As it is, they really don’t have much to add, although the release of Mckenzie leaves them a bit short at receiver.
And while they’re still be tough to beat as long as Allen is under center, they’ve lost a bit of their luster.
Miami Dolphins
2022 record: 9- 8 (wild card)
Notable additions: CB Jalen Ramsey, LB David Long, DB Deshon Elliot, WR Braxton Berrios, TE Eric Saubert, QB Mike White, OL Dan Feeney, P Jake Bailey. Re-signed: LB Duke Riley, RB Raheem Mostert, RB Jeff Wilson, CB Nik Needham.
Notable losses: LB Elandon Roberts, CB Byron Jones, TE Mike Gesicki.
Best move: Trading for Ramsey to pair him with Xavian Howard at corner. Signing Vic Fangio as the defensive coordinator earns honorable mention.
Head scratcher: Still think they’re playing with fire with Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion history. Mike White is good, but he is good enough to take them where they want to go if Tua goes down?
Outlook: The Dolphins made huge strides on offense last season, with offensive-minded head coach Mike Mcdaniel, but more importantly with the addition of Tyreek Hill. When Tagovailoa was under center, the Fins were a tough team to beat.
The problem is that Tagovailoa suffered three head injuries alone last season, and wasn’t available down the stretch or for their playoff game against the Bills. Even with that as a concern, they still appear allin on Tua.
Since they rebuilt their offense last season, and resigned their top running backs, the defense has been the focus this year. First, they signed Fangio to be their defensive coordinator. Then, they landed AllPro corner Ramsey in exchange for a third-round pick and tight end Hunter Long. Having Ramsey and Xavian Howard on opposite corners is scary.
Another great addition is former Titan David Long, one of the better linebackers in the game. The twoyear, $11 million deal he signed was an absolute steal.
Having Tagovailoa still on his rookie contract has certainly helped with the finances and being able to add pieces on both sides of the ball.
Berrios is a sneaky good signing both in the return game and as in that loaded offense.
In short, the Dolphins have made the types of moves that will not only keep them playoff-bound, but also give the Bills a run for their money. All of this, however, assumes Tua can stay healthy.
New England Patriots
2022 record: 8-9
Notable additions: WR Juju Smith- Schuster, TE Mike Gesicki, RB James Robinson, OT Calvin Anderson, OT Riley Reiff, LB Chris Board. Re-signed: CB Jonathan Jones, S Jabrill Peppers, OT Conor Mcdermott, OL James Ferentz, LB Raekwan Mcmillan, LB Mack Wilson, LS Joe Cardona.
Notable losses: S Devin Mccourty (retired), WR Jakobi Meyers, P Jake Bailey, QB Brian Hoyer, DB Jalen Mills.
Best move: Along with bringing OC Bill O’brien aboard, dumping Jonnu Smith and his bloated contract and replacing him with Mike Gesicki earns high marks.
Head scratcher: Making little effort to re-sign Meyers, who went for reasonable money (3 years, $33 million) to Las Vegas.
Outlook: Along with bringing most of the band back in terms of in-house free agents, the Patriots did make a few moves to try and bolster the offense, most notably with the additions of Smith-schuster and Gesicki.
With a hugely competitive division, though, it still might not be enough.
To keep pace with the rest, they needed to land some game- changing, defense-altering players. They needed to add some players who put some fear into opposing defense.
Smith- Schuster and Gesicki are good players, and should provide some spark, particularly in the red zone where the team struggled mightily last season.
But neither one is going to cause any defensive coordinator to lose sleep before playing the Patriots.
“You look at the talent, I just don’t see great, great talent,” NBC analyst Rodney Harrison told the Herald earlier in the week. “I see solid football players, but I don’t see an AFC championship roster. I don’t see that level of talent.”
Swapping out SmithSchuster for Meyers doesn’t do the trick. Neither does having Gesicki over Smith, and James Robinson instead of Damien Harris. While several of these players are upgrades for sure, none of the additions can be classified as top- end talent.
That said, much of the Patriots’ success or failure is going to come down to O’brien fixing the offense and working his magic with Mac Jones. Will Jones get back to being that promising quarterback now having a legitimate coach and an enhanced arsenal? If he doesn’t improve, if he continues to play like he did last season, the Patriots will really have a problem.
“They still have a big question mark with Mac coming into Year 3,” Harrison said. “We saw his frustration last year with Matt Patricia and the offense, so what will Bill O’brien do to get him back, and get him back to being a confident young man who’s not always out there complaining? That’s one of the biggest things.”
The Pats did add serviceable depth to the offensive line, but still need another top gun at tackle.
All in all, not a bad haul thus far. They’ve done pretty well to get the offense over the hump. But is it enough to improve their standing with everyone else going on around them? Unless there’s more to come, probably not.
New York Jets
2022 record: 7-10 Notable additions: OC Nathaniel Hackett, WR Allen Lazard, S Chuck Clark, P Thomas Morstead. Resigned: LB Quincy Williams, K Greg Zuelein.
Notable losses: DT Sheldon Rankins, DT Nathan
Shepherd, QB Mike White.
Best move: Hiring Hackett to give themselves a shot at landing Aaron Rodgers.
Head scratcher: Putting all of their eggs in the Rodgers basket. If it doesn’t work out, there will be more than a little egg on their faces. All of the legitimate free agent QBS are taken.
Outlook: Obviously, the biggest question is Rodgers. His situation remains in limbo. As of Friday, the Packers and Jets were still haggling over trade details.
The fact that Rodgers wants to join the Jets certainly works in their favor. So does the fact they hired Hackett, Rodgers former offensive coordinator with the Packers.
At this point, it just seems like a matter of time.
Rodgers wants in because the Jets are stacked with tons of young talent, namely offensive rookie of the year Garrett Wilson, and Sauce Gardner, defensive rookie of the year.
Last season, the Jets had fielded one of the best defenses in the league, and that won’t change.
Retaining starting linebacker Quincy Williams, the older brother of 2022 FirstTeam All- Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, was a shrewd move considering the Jets need to eventually give Quinnen a longterm, second contract.
Picking up a starting caliber safety in Chuck Clark from the Ravens for a seventh-round pick was another nice move.
The offense might need a little more beyond Rodgers. However, nothing matters for the Jets if the trade falls through.
Assuming Rodgers is the quarterback, newly-signed Lazard told reporters in New York that he likes the Jets’ chances in the AFC.
“With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the possibility of wins is always a thing,” Lazard, a favorite of Rodgers in Green Bay, said during a Zoom call Friday. “With that being said, it’s really the Super Bowl.”
With Rodgers, the Jets become instant contenders, even if his track record in the playoffs is suspect. Without him, they’re the same old Jets. It’s that simple.