Breaking down, predicting Notre Dame vs. Oregon State
On paper, the 2023 Sun Bowl pits two top-25 teams in No. 15 Notre Dame and No. 21 Oregon State.
But now those teams are vastly different.
Both the Irish (9-3) and Beavers (8-4) had rosters thin thanks to players either entering the transfer portal or opting out to concentrate on preparing for April's NFL Draft.
Oregon State's head coach even moved on. Jonathan Smith took the same position at Michigan State. Kefense Hynson will be the interim head coach for the bowl game, with Trent Bray taking over in the full-time role next season.
With so much change happening, who has the edge when the ball is kicked off in El Paso, Texas, Friday (2 p.m., CBS)? Here is the tale of the tape between Notre Dame and Oregon State.
When Notre Dame has the ball
Sophomore quarterback Steve Angeli gets his first career start for the Irish. He's been relegated to a handful of appearances the past two years, primarily late in blowout victories.
While Angeli won't have 1,000-yard running back Audric Estimé Frdiay (opt out for NFL Draft), a trio of younger ball carriers are looking for breakout performances — Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Price and Gi'Bran Payne. Love had 346 yards and one touchdown this season, Price 166 yards and two touchdowns and Payne 144 yards and two scores.
An issue for Notre Dame, though, is the absence of its top four receivers from the regular season (Chris Tyree, Mitchell Evans, Rico Flores and Tobias Merriweather). That leaves the top pass-catching option being freshman Jaden Greathouse, who had 252 yards and five touchdowns in 11 games.
The Irish are also without three offensive linemen in left tackle Joe Alt, right tackle Blake Fisher and center Zeke Correll. Freshman Charles Jagusah, redshirt junior Tosh Baker and redshirt freshman Ashton Craig will start at the offensive line.
Oregon State's defense will be without Easton Mascarenas, who transferred to USC after leading the Beavers with 107 tackles this year. Kitan Oladapo steps in with his 63 tackles and two interceptions. OSU also has Andrew Chatfield, who's nine sacks tied for 18th in the country this season.
Notre Dame is slightly more shorthanded than Oregon State, but it's not a definitive edge. The Beavers could find success against the inexperienced Irish, especially along the offensive line. Edge: Oregon State
When Oregon State has the ball
The bad news for the Beavers is they're down to a third-string quarterback after D.J. Uiagalelei and Aidan Chiles entered the transfer portal. The good news for them is that third-stringer is Ben Gulbranson, who started 10 games last year, throwing for 1,455 yards and nine touchdowns. He also rushed for five touchdowns.
While Gulbranson has experience, most around him don't. Leading rusher Damien Martinez (1,185 yards, 11 touchdowns) and several top receiving options are not playing for the Beavers, including Anthony Gould (718 receiving yards, two touchdowns), Jack Velling (438 yards, eight touchdowns) and Jesiah Irish (246 yards, one touchdown).
Main offensive weapons for Oregon State are Silas Bolden and Deshaun Fenwick. Bolden co-lead the team with 718 receiving yards, while Fenwick had 500 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on the ground.
Notre Dame's defense is mostly together. It's top seven tacklers will play in the Sun Bowl. That includes senior Xavier Watts, who won the Bronko Nagurski Award, given to the nation's top defensive player. Watts led the FBS with seven interceptions to go along with four other pass deflections and 47 tackles.
It was a dominant Irish defense from start to finish in the regular season. They should be able to replicate that success against a Beavers offense that looks like a shell of itself. Edge: Notre Dame
Special Teams
Both teams have returned at least one kick back for a score this year, with Price returning a kickoff for a touchdown against USC and Bolden a punt against UC-Davis.
In the kicking department, the Beavers will be without its primary placekicker from this season in Atticus Sappington. He made 49 of 50 extra point attempts and 13 of 14 field goals, proving to be a valuable weapon for Oregon State.
Spencer Shrader will still be kicking for Notre Dame. He's converted 56 of 57 PATs and 14 of 20 field goals this year, including a program-record 54-yarder in the win over NC State. Bryce McFerson has also been one of the top punters in the country, helping the Irish win the field position battle with a 44.7 yards-per-punt average. Edge: Notre Dame
Coaching
Notre Dame has a full-time head coach. Oregon State does not. That feels like it should give the Irish an edge in this category, and it does. Edge: Notre Dame
South Bend Tribune staff predictions for the Sun Bowl
TOM NOIE: Notre Dame 17, Oregon State 6: Both sides insist this won't look or feel like a spring game, but with so many new faces in new places for both sides, it will look and feel like a spring game. In El Paso. In December. MIKE BERARDINO: Notre Dame 24,
Oregon State 14. Backup Bowl goes to the deeper program. MICHAEL WANBAUGH: Notre Dame 34, Oregon State 23. With little at stake, the Irish finally beat the Beavers as Steve Angeli gives ND coaches something to think about. AUSTIN HOUGH: Notre Dame 24, Oregon State 3. The Irish's defense is still mostly intact from the regular season. That should be enough to beat the Beavers' third-string offense, regardless of who's throwing or running the ball for Notre Dame.