South Florida Sun-Sentinel Palm Beach (Sunday)
Slowing Patriots these days means stopping run game
DAVIE — There may be no way to put this lightly.
The Miami Dolphins defense, which has become one of the best in the NFL this season with its infusion of well-paid free agents to go with the homegrown contributors, was embarrassed in the season opener at New England.
The best fight Miami’s defense put up may have come after giving up a season-high 217 yards rushing, when it confronted new Patriots quarterback Cam Newton. He was boisterously basking in his glory after accounting for 230 of New England’s 357 total yards with two rushing touchdowns in a 21-11 loss for Miami.
Dolphins newcomers Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts, both former Super Bowl-winning Patriots, confronted Newton after the final play. Defensive end Shaq Lawson and defensive tackle Christian Wilkins joined in after chirping with Newton throughout the game too.
And rookie Raekwon Davis even pulled at Newton’s necklace, breaking the quarterback’s jewelry, before both teams headed to the locker room.
“It was just a lot of emotions — that’s all it was,” said Davis, the secondround Dolphins pick last April. “I think we’re past that.”
Added defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah: “I know we have to stop that run. They run the ball a lot. We have to do a good job, better than we did in the first game stopping the run, and force them into one dimension.”
The Dolphins (8-5) and Patriots (6-7) are clearly at different junctures at this point of the 2020 season before Sunday’s home finale at Hard Rock Stadium.
A Dolphins win would end New England’s streak of 11 consecutive playoff appearances while extending Miami’s chances to earn a playoff spot in coach Brian Flores’ second season.
Miami may not catch the AFC-East leading Buffalo Bills, who need a road win against the Denver Broncos to clinch their first division crown since 1995. But the Dolphins would need wins on the road in their final two games against the Las Vegas Raiders on Dec 26 and the Bills on Jan. 3 to reach the playoffs for just the third time since 2001.
On offense, Dolphins starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa hopes to become the first rookie since 2013 to beat Patriots coach Bill Belichick’s defense.
Eleven others have failed since Russell Wilson won in 2012, including Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, whose team suffered a 45-0 loss earlier this month to
New England.
But Sunday ’s game could come down to how the Dolphins overcome their biggest weakness on defense: stopping the Patriots’ rushing attack.
“They do a good job in the run game,” Flores said of New England, where he spent 15 years in various roles in the Patriots organization. “They’ve been able to pick up chunks of yardage.
“I would say they’re top five in the league in rushing, so they’ve done a good job from that standpoint. … We’re going to have our work cut out for us as far as getting that defended.”
After giving up that season-high 217 yards rushing in the opener, which saw Newton run for 75 yards and score two of his 11 touchdowns this season, the Dolphins defense has tightened up. Most recently, Miami allowed the Denver Broncos to rush for 189 yards Nov. 22 — the Dolphins’ last loss.
Since then, the Dolphins have allowed an average of 73.6 rushing yards to their past three opponents: the Jets, Bengals and Chiefs.
The improvement has Miami’s defense now ranking 21st in the NFL, allowing 120.2 yards per game.
“I think what changed is we just communicate better,” Dolphins linebacker Jerome Baker said. “We take pride in making sure teams don’t run on us. I think that’s the main thing.
“We have extra meetings just for players. We did pretty much all we can to get that under control. This week is going to be a big challenge, but it’s definitely going to work out.”
New England’s rushing offense is one of the best in the NFL. Newton and the Patriots have depended on it due to a lack of playmaking receivers this season. And the run game has been successful, accounting for 147.5 yards per game, which ranks fifth in the league.
The Patriots also account for 4.5 yards per carry, which ranks in the top 10, and 19 rushing touchdowns, which ranks third in the NFL.
Along with Newton’s 11 touchdowns, secondyear running back Damien Harris leads the team with 691 yards rushing, while South Florida products Sony Michel (American Heritage) and James White (St. Thomas Aquinas) have also had success against the Dolphins in recent years.
The Dolphins hope their recent success against the run provides a different outcome than in the opener.
“I think we are comfortable with where we’re at, and we’ve got to make strides to get better each time we take the field … just playing better and having everybody play better helps as well,” Van Noy said.
“I hope we do our best to slow it down.” isn’t just blowing out on the Dolphins’ season. It’s again the Patriots, and a lesser form of them, providing the wind.
As always, this December rematch has one team trying keep the playoff train moving and the other playing the limited role of spoiler. It’s so 2020 the way it lays out, though.
It’s opposite of how it has been for two decades — the rivalry in reverse.
It’s New England attempting to ruin the Dolphins good season. It’s Bill Belichick trying to stave off a losing season against his protégé, Brian Flores. It’s the Patriots without a real quarterback while the Dolphins have seen enough of Tua Tagovailoa’s talent to think he could be the real deal.
This game, from the Dolphins’ perspective, is huge. It’s the biggest game of Flores’ abbreviated era.
Granted, that’s not saying much, if anything. But this is really the game the Dolphins franchise has much of two decades to play.
The 2008 Wildcat game? A surprise one-off. The Miami Miracle two years ago or last year’s win in Foxboro to spoil the Patriots’ playoff chances? Fun, but big-picture irrelevant.
Finally, this game, the storyline is the Dolphins are a developing team on the rise and the Patriots are a quarterback-less team on the fall. Maybe it’s true, maybe not.
There are more immediate issues anyway, like how Belichick is a career 25-5 against rookie quarterbacks and what he’ll do to pry into the mind of Tagovailoa. Belichick’s work on the other side of the game, though, will have an equal measure in deciding it.
Remember that first impression when these teams met in September of how New England wouldn’t miss Tom Brady with Cam Newton playing like that? That idea crumbled long before the cold, dry statistics of December.
New England has thrown for the league’s fewest touchdowns (eight). It ranks 28th in passing yards. It’s fourth in throwing the most interceptions.
“Our passing game still is not as efficient as we need it to be,” Belichick said this week. “Really everything that’s involved: the protection, route distribution, which involves everybody — tight ends, backs, and receivers — timing, and the ability to execute and create separation in man-to-man coverage. So we continue to work on all those things.”
The Patriots won’t be working much on them Sunday. The Dolphins’ strength is their secondary, starting with the two cornerbacks, Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. And that gets into the real chess match in the game, the one beyond the obvious one of Belichick and Tua.
The Patriots have scored the third-most rushing touchdowns in the league. They’re fifth in rushing yards per game and ninth in rushing attempts.
Get the picture?
“Our running game has been more productive than it has been in the past, so I think our receivers have a role in that,” Belichick said of the effort of his pulling guards at wideout, where once Randy Moss and Deion Branch ran.
So these post-Brady Patriots can’t pass but can run. And these still-developing Dolphins stop the pass but rank 24th in run defense. Do you need to be Belichickian to see where the drama in this game will play out?
Belichick is known for dramatic game plans and could pull one out of the 1940s T-formation — simple, direct and points at a premium, on both sides of the ball. Tua will have issues, especially with such little playmaking help. The Dolphins too will have to strategically flex its muscle.
Bottom line: The time has come for the Dolphins to beat the Patriots in a big game for them — not a big one for the Patriots. It’s time to use what they’ve learned of the Flores Way to dismantle the Patriots Way, at least for now.
It’s a must-win day for the Dolphins.
Or wait to win it next year.