Second-round pick almost guaranteed to be successful

Expect the Dolphins to make a strong selection at No. 51 in the NFL draft later this month. That’s what I’m expecting.

I’ll even take it a step further and say I’d almost be shocked if this pick doesn’t produce as a rookie, and keep producing three years into his career.

Why?

He’ll be a second-round pick, and recent history says that’s almost can’t-miss territory for the Dolphins.

During the last 10 years the Dolphins’ second-round draft pick has pretty much been money. They’re talented players that have been developed well by the organization, and, for the most part, they’ve stayed healthy. It’s a winning combination.

A few years ago I learned I should buy into this trend.

So, here I am again; I’m all in. I’m thinking the Dolphins’ second-round pick will be productive. Now, and in the future.

The Dolphins could go many directions with this year’s second-rounder. Tight end (Iowa’s Sam LaPorta?). Offensive tackle (Syracuse’s Matthew Bergeron?). Interior offensive line (TCU’s Steve Avila?). Linebacker (Iowa’s Jack Campbell?). Running back (Texas’ Roschon Johnson?). You could make an argument for numerous possibilities.

But the player chosen will likely work well.

Consider the Dolphins’ secondround picks from the previous 10 years (all are still in the league except Taylor): 2022: None

2021: Jevon Holland, S, Oregon; Liam Eichenberg, G-T, Notre Dame

2020: Robert Hunt, G-T, Louisiana; Raekwon Davis, DT, Alabama

2019: None

2018: Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State (now with New England)

2017: Raekwon McMillan, LB, Ohio State (now with New England)

2016: Xavien Howard, CB, Baylor

2015: Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma (now with Buffalo)

2014: Jarvis Landry, WR, LSU (free agent after playing with New Orleans last season)

2013: Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State By the way, it might surprise you to know the first-round picks from that same era are pretty darn good.

The best first-rounders are offensive tackle Ja’Wuan James (2014), offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil (2016), safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (2018), defensive tackle Christian Wilkins (2019), quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (2020), wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (2021) and edge rusher Jaelan Phillips (2021).

But for the second consecutive year the Dolphins don’t have a first-round pick (they had two, and lost one for tampering with quarterback Tom Brady and coach Sean Payton, and traded the other to Denver in November in the deal for edge rusher Bradley Chubb).

So let’s get back to the second-round picks.

Howard and Landry are the stars. They’re both Pro Bowl veterans. Howard has four Pro Bowl berths while Landry had three with the Dolphins.

Gesicki, Holland and Hunt have Pro Bowl potential.

That’s a lot of high-level production.

No, it hasn’t been a steady string of second-round successes. Taylor was only with the Dolphins for two years. His last year in the league was 2020.

But having nine of the 10 still in the league is quite an accomplishment.

Beyond that, most played fairly significant roles for their teams last season.

Yeah, Eichenberg had injury problems and his performance was uneven, but he was a starter. And Gesicki, although he only made one start, was third on the team with five touchdowns.

If this year’s second-round pick follows the trend he’ll be good enough at tight end, left guard, right tackle, running back or any other position.

You always want a Pro Bowl-caliber guy, but that’s not necessarily what the Dolphins need, if that makes sense.

The offense and defense already have enough star-caliber players among guys such as Tagovailoa, wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, left tackle Terron Armstead, cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey, and edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips.

And, again, young second-round picks such as Hunt and Holland, along with Wilkins, a young first-rounder, have Pro Bowl potential.

So, this second-round pick just has to be himself. He won’t have tremendous pressure on him such as a first-round pick or someone drafted to immediately start at one of the team’s key positions (quarterback, cornerback, edge rusher, left tackle, etc…).

Of course, there are no guarantees.

Good things aren’t going to happen simply because this guy is a Dolphins secondround pick.

But if he works hard, listens to his coaches and veteran teammates, and stays healthy, he’ll be successful this season and for many seasons to follow.

The recent trend says that’ll happen, and I’m all in.

MATT DURISKO/AP Miami Dolphins safety Jevon Holland returns an interception during an NFL wild-card game Jan. 15 in Orchard Park, NY.