Cases up 49% this week

Florida on Saturday added 8,410 new cases of COVID-19 to its pandemic tally, ending its worst week for infections since Aug. 1.

Department of Health data show 56,732 people tested positive for the virus over the past week, continuing a monthlong upward trend.

Florida’s surge is part of a nationwide wave that on Friday hit a pandemic record of 195,542 new cases across the country, according to Johns Hopkins University.

The state experienced a 49.2% increase over the 38,019 cases from the previous week. Two weeks ago, Florida had 34,530 people with new infections. Records show the state had a corresponding jump in COVID-19 testing in the past week, which contributed to the rising case totals.

The state reported that 803,031 residents were swabbed over the last seven days, including people who were retested after previously testing positive. That’s a 50.7% increase from the 532,733 residents tested the week before.

This week marks the most new cases for the state since the week ending Aug. 1. But it’s still below the weekly record of 83,058 cases set July 18.

The big question is, what comes next? Public health experts are warning of increasing cases and deaths across the nation as fall turns into winter.

But it’s not an exact science, even for the most trusted forecasts. The COVID-19 ForecastHub is the best place to get a read on what to expect, said Justin Lessler, a Johns Hopkins epidemiology professor.

This site collects prediction models from more than two dozen sources, including a few Johns Hopkins models, and combines

them to create one ensemble forecast. This the same approach seen in weather reports, only this time its for the highly infectious disease that is rattling the U.S. and the world.

The ForecastHub releases a new

COVID-19 forecast every Tuesday, looking as far as four weeks ahead. The most recent projection for Florida fell short. The modeling only called for 39,571 new cases this week, or a modest increase.

The current ensemble forecast, a calculation based on 28 different models, shows an expectation of about 44,000 new cases over the next three weeks in Florida. This would likely be revised, based on the greater than expected jump seen in the past seven days.

The state figures include 10,105 new cases from Sunday, and 9,085 new infections both Thursday and Friday.

Florida officials say 931,828 people have tested positive for

COVID-19 since the pandemic began in March.

The state on Saturday also confirmed 42 new deaths linked to COVID-19. The fatalities listed on the daily statistical reports happened over several weeks but were just confirmed in the past day.

Overall, at least 18,152 people have died from the virus in Florida, official records show.

South Florida

Broward County: 968 additional cases and three more deaths. Broward has a known total of

100,288 cases and 1,647 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic. The death tally includes 29 nonresidents.

Palm Beach County: 576 additional cases and one more death. The county now has 61,305 confirmed cases and 1,672 deaths. The fatalities include 24 nonresidents.

Miami-Dade County: 1,940 additional cases and seven new deaths. The county now has 213,197 confirmed cases and 3,775 deaths. The death tally includes 22 nonresidents.

Testing and positivity rates

Public health experts say the virus is considered under control when the COVID-19 test positivity rate is under 5%. Florida exceeds 5% by both of its measures of assessing the rate for testing of residents.

In the first calculation, the state reported a daily positivity rate of

6.79%, down from 7.62% the day before. This method of calculating positivity counts new infections only, but also counts repeat negative tests, which skews the figure downward.

According to the state, Saturday’s new case numbers reflect the results of 121,192 COVID-19 tests of Florida residents received from labs in the past day, up from 116,133 results reported Friday.

In the second calculation, which includes retests of people who were previously diagnosed, the statewide daily positivity rate is 8.26% based on the latest results for 133,919 residents. That’s down from 8.97% the previous day.

Broward County: Daily positivity rate of 7.02% for people with new infections only, down from 7.52% the previous day, according to state data.

Palm Beach County: Daily positivity rate of 6.56% for people with new infections only, up from 6.47% the previous day.

Miami Dade County: Daily positivity rate of 7.4% for people with new infections only, down from 8.69% the previous day.

Child infections

COVID-19 infections among children younger than 18 are surging across Florida. Friday’s official data show 82,293 cases statewide, an increase of 934 from the previous day.

Records show 690,229 kids have been swabbed since the beginning of the pandemic. And 11.9% of them have tested positive.

Overall, the statistics show

17,587 cases among children in Miami-Dade County, the most in the state, followed by 10,797 cases in Broward. There have been 5,034 confirmed infections among kids in Palm Beach County.

The statewide report also shows

921 children have been treated in hospitals for COVID-19 illness since March. Nine have died.

Hospitalizations

As of 3 p.m. Saturday, 3,396 people were hospitalized in Florida with a primary diagnosis of COVID-19. That’s a decrease of 43 patients in about 24 hours, according to the state Agency for Health Care Administration.

In South Florida, Broward County reported 319 patients, down by one; Palm Beach County had 239, up by one; and Miami-Dade had the most in the state with 473, up by five.

Since the pandemic began, 53,091 residents have been hospitalized for the disease, according to the state health department.

Deaths

Statewide: The state’s pandemic data report shows a total of 17,930 Floridians have died from COVID19. In addition, 222 nonresidents have died after contracting the virus.

Florida has the fourth-highest total of COVID-19 deaths among the states, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Florida’s death rate since the pandemic began ranks 13th among states, at 83 deaths per 100,000 people, the CDC reports. That’s higher than the national rate of 76 deaths per 100,000.

Long-term-care facilities: At least 7,117 residents and staff have died at nursing homes and assisted-living centers throughout Florida.

Miami-Dade County has reported the highest number of deaths at long-term care facilities, with 857. Palm Beach County is second with 742. Broward has reported 465 deaths.