South Florida Sun-Sentinel (Sunday)
Run game may be key for Dolphins
When the Dolphins run: Rookie Salvon Ahmed ran for 85 yards and a 1-yard touchdown during Miami’s win over the Los Angeles Chargers last week, providing a valuable spark to the run game. The Dolphins may also have veteran Matt Brieda return for the Denver game from a two-game absence because of a hamstring injury. The Dolphins will need both players to be decisive runners and help quarterback Tua Tagovailoa balance the offense in his fourth career start. They should see some success against the Broncos rank, who at 22nd in the NFL, just one spot below Miami, allowing 128.8 yards rushing per game. Edge: Dolphins.
When the Broncos run: Denver has two talented running backs in Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsey, who could put the Dolphins defense in a bind if they get loose. Gordon leads Denver with 439 yards rushing and four touchdowns, while Lindsay has 312 yards and a touchdown but averages 5.5. yards per carry. The Broncos may rely on both players to get their offense going if quarterback Drew Lock is unable to play, which could help the Dolphins if Denver becomes one dimensional. Miami’s defense is 21st against the run, allowing 121.1 yards per game. Edge: Dolphins.
When the Dolphins pass: Rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s accuracy slightly regressed in his third start, but he was still able to throw two touchdown passes and keep his interception-less streak alive in the process. Tagovailoa completed just 15 of 25 passes for 169 yards against the Chargers, one week after a 20 of 28 clip for 248 yards at Arizona. The Broncos are 14th against the pass, allowing just 231.2 yards per game. But the game is slowing down for Tagovailoa, even three starts in, and his chemistry is developing with DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, Mike Gesicki and others. Edge: Dolphins.
When the Broncos pass: It’s unclear which Broncos quarterback the Dolphins may see on Sunday. Secondyear starter Drew Lock was a limited practice participant Thursday due to a ribs injury, while backups Jeff Driskel and Brett Rypien have appeared in three games this season while Lock was out earlier this season. The Dolphins defense continues to impress, limiting teams to just 20.2 points per game this season (5th), opposing quarterbacks to an 87.8 passer rating (6th) and a 33.9 percent conversion rate on third down (3rd). Edge: Dolphins
Special teams: Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders missed his first field goal kick last week, breaking a streak of 20 straight kicks to start this season. He remains one of the NFL’s most reliable kickers. Punter Matt Haack has 17 punts inside the 20, fifth in the NFL, while returner Jakeem Grant has one of two punt return touchdowns in the NFL while leading with 294 punt return yards. The Broncos boast kicker Brandon McManus (18 for 19), punter Sam Martin (11 kicks inside 20) and returner Diontae Spencer (18.1 yards per kick return). Edge: Dolphins.
Intangibles: Dolphins coach Brian Flores was interviewed by both Denver and Miami teams before being hired, a move that has paid off for Miami. The Dolphins are 6-3 this season, 8-3 in their last 11 games, and 11-7 since Flores won his first game last season. He’s 11-14 overall, while Broncos coach Vic Fangio is 10-15 (3-6 this season), as both teams appear to be heading in different directions this season. Denver has wins over the Jets, Patriots and Chargers after a 0-3 start, while Miami enters the game hoping to tie Buffalo for the AFC East lead, and improve its sixth-pace standing in the AFC playoff race. Edge: Dolphins.
Prediction: Dolphins 30, Broncos 13