A mayor’s considered plan to reopen Broward

Steve Geller is no doctor or scientist — he’s a lawyer, politician and Broward mayor. But he’s following the science on COVID-19 as he crafts a plan for Broward to gradually return to a semblance of normal life. “I can’t keep things closed forever,” he says.

After taking the mayor’s gavel for a year in November, Geller said he and his County Commission colleagues would chart a path to gradually lift restrictions and reopen the county when safe to do so. While he cannot provide a timetable, Geller has wisely sought guidance from Dr. Anthony Fauci (described by the mayor as reluctant to state his opinions) and experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.

The CDC offered verbal feedback, but as of this writing, the agency has not provided the detailed written response that Geller requested. Getting those views in writing is absolutely needed.

Here’s what a fully reopened Broward would look like: Happy hour crowds, three deep at bars on Las Olas; a crowded Sawgrass Mills with no one wearing a mask; the local condo swimming pool packed with swimmers and their grandkids; the Swap Shop and Seminole Hard Rock jammed with people spending money, shoulder-to-shoulder. Remember those days?

Geller proposes a reasonable path to reopening, one with clearly measurable milestones. But he is taking this journey with Gov. Ron DeSantis, who sometimes acts as though the pandemic is behind us.

That means Geller and his fellow commissioners must muster every bit of resolve they can to prevent restrictions from being lifted too quickly. After all, South Florida remains a hot spot for the virus, including one of its variants. Wishing things were different does not make it so.

The good news is, vaccination rates are increasing as more of the county’s adult population becomes eligible for shots. But what’s also going up lately is the COVID-19 positivity rate, the percentage of positive cases among people tested daily.

“The trend line is horrible,” Geller told the Sun Sentinel editorial board, recalling a recent stretch when Broward’s positivity rate reached 7.4%. Visits to emergency rooms, a trailing indicator of trouble, have been rising.

Cases also are creeping up again, even as more people are being vaccinated. Plus, Florida leads all states in cases involving one of three mutated variants of COVID-19, with Broward leading all Florida counties in that category. Palm Beach County’s health director said the actual number of variant cases is far greater than has been reported.

The invasion of college students on spring break, a surge in travel and an understandable level of cabin fever have all likely contributed to a spike in cases. Too few shots are still being offered to Black and brown residents, and troubling reports persist of too many young adults refusing to get vaccinated.

The mayor, a Democrat, worries with good reason that the governor, a Republican, will issue a decree lifting all restrictions across the state to please his political base. With his one-size-fits-all approach, DeSantis has already stripped counties of their ability to issue fines to those who flout sensible safety restrictions.

The mayor is proposing a three-stage recovery plan that requires more vaccinations and fewer cases to trend in a positive direction at the same time.

Phase I of Broward’s recovery would begin after 50% of eligible adults are vaccinated and the positivity rate falls below 5% for 10 straight days, calculated on a threeday rolling average.

Only when those benchmarks are met would the county ease some restrictions. Under Phase I, for example, capacity limits and six-foot social distancing rules would be lifted at restaurants, hotels, stores, private gatherings, amateur sports events with spectators, charter fishing boats and function spaces.

Phase II would kick in when the county reaches a 60% vaccination rate and the positivity rate falls below 4% for 10 straight days. Only then will bars finally be free of capacity limits and the six-foot rule. The same would apply to gyms, bowling alleys and arcades. The 50% crowd limits will disappear at movie theaters, auditoriums, museums, concert halls, gambling casinos, vacation rentals and common areas of housing developments such as pools, gyms and community rooms.

Phase III would require 65% of adults to be vaccinated with a positivity rate below 3% for 10 straight days. Only then, according to Geller’s blueprint, would the county lift its face mask requirement. “Face masks need to be the last item listed,” he said.

Under the most optimistic scenario, Phase I is more than a month away. It will take at least another month for half of the eligible Broward adults to receive vaccines — the first Phase I metric. According to the mayor’s office, as many as 12,000 people a day receive shots, and about half a million residents have been vaccinated to date. About 1.55 million adults live in Broward.

The reopening plan will be discussed and dissected at Tuesday’s commission meeting. (It is Item No. 92 on the agenda if you’re watching.) Commissioners also will discuss how to allow the public to attend commission meetings again.

It’s impossible to predict what will happen in the weeks and months ahead, but Geller deserves credit for seeking input from experts and advancing a considered plan. He’s open to more suggestions. “Obviously, we need to reopen,” he says.

Yes, we do. But with lives on the line, it must be done right.