South Florida Sun-Sentinel (Sunday)
An intrastate matchup with defending champs
Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 5 game:
When the Dolphins run: The Buccaneers have the NFL’s top run defense, and the Dolphins oftentimes show a lack of interest in running the football — or can’t when they do try. Myles Gaskin had been averaging 5 yards per carry, but then the Dolphins only gave him two rush attempts last Sunday against the Colts, which went for 3 yards. Malcolm Brown, in the game more than Gaskin or Salvon Ahmed because he’s a more serviceable pass blocker, had 23 yards on eight carries in a game where the Dolphins averaged a mere 2.2 yards per rush. Miami’s young offensive line has run blocked better in spurts than what it has shown in pass protection, so the run could be something the Dolphins want to explore more. Edge: Buccaneers
When the Buccaneers run: Most of what the Buccaneers do is through the air as their 72 rushing yards per game rank 30th in the NFL. With 78 rushing attempts through four weeks, they are the team that has utilized the run the second-fewest times in the NFL, trailing only Pittsburgh. When Tampa mixes it in, however, the Bucs can be effective with the ground game. Leonard Fournette has averaged 4.2 yards per carry as the lead back, and he actually had his most busy outing last week in New England, getting 20 carries for 91 yards in the Foxborough rain. The Dolphins’ run defense is 27th in the NFL, allowing 136.8 yards per game. They’ve allowed an individual 100-yard rusher in three of their first four games. Edge: Buccaneers
When the Dolphins pass: It’s a Dolphins passing game that cannot throw the ball downfield in the first three and a half quarters of games behind quarterback Jacoby Brissett versus a Buccaneers pass defense that is worst in the NFL, allowing 327.5 yards per game through the air. Brissett has shown signs that he can orchestrate an offense that isn’t always ultra-conservative, checking passes down, but in his two starts for the injured Tua Tagovailoa (ribs), he has only done it when trailing by multiple scores in the fourth quarter. Word around the Dolphins is they want to get receiver DeVante Parker, Gesicki and others more involved early. A banged-up Tampa secondary — with cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting on injured reserve and fellow cornerbacks Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean and safety Antoine Winfield Jr.’s status all in doubt — could present Miami with the opportunities to open up the passing game. Edge: Even
When the Buccaneers pass: In all the years of Tom Brady facing Miami as AFC East rivals, the Dolphins were usually good for a split against the quarterback that is, in all likelihood, the greatest of all time. Most of those upset victories over Brady, however, were at home. Brady has three elite receivers to throw to in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, but at least both of the Dolphins’ top two cornerbacks in Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are expected to play after being limited in practice during the past week. Then you’re probably counting on Nik Needham on one of the other receivers. Edge: Buccaneers
Special teams: The Dolphins are shaking things up on special teams after trading longtime return man Jakeem Grant to the Bears. This opens things up for rookie Jaylen Waddle to likely handle much of the return duties. He fumbled one away earlier this season. The Dolphins’ Jason Sanders has been nearly automatic over the years, but Ryan Succop has missed a pair of field goals and an extra point thus far this season after he was big for the Buccaneers in last year’s Super Bowl run. Dolphins punter Michael Palardy had a punt downed at the 1-yard line last game but then line-drived the next one into the end zone for a touchback in a field position battle. Sanders also had a kickoff out of bounds. Edge: Even
Intangibles: The Buccaneers are the defending Super Bowl champs, and after two tough road games — falling to the Rams and then playing the Patriots close in Foxborough — they are sure to be happy to return home. The Dolphins could be the more desperate team on Sunday at 1-3, and they have shown in the past under Flores they can rebound and improve as a season progresses. Edge: Buccaneers
PREDICTION: Buccaneers 38, Dolphins 24