South Florida Sun-Sentinel (Sunday)
Riley not alone in considering Heat an NBA title contender
INDIANAPOLIS — This was before the Miami Heat’s season-opening blowout of the defending-champion Milwaukee Bucks, before the record-setting performance that opened additional eyes to the possibilities of what Pat Riley has crafted for 202122.
This was during the innocuous preseason exercise of ESPN having its experts predict potential conference-finals scenarios and NBA Finals outcomes.
While the network’s bloviators were included, there was one prediction in particular that deserved the expert tag. Because former Brooklyn Nets Assistant General Manager Bobby Marks spent more than 20 years in the league as an executive.
And there it was from Marks. Eastern Conference finals: Heat over Nets. NBA Finals: Heat over Jazz. Wait, what? Fact checking ensued, namely a call to Florida’s southwest coast, where Marks resides.
The first question was a simple, “Why?” “I keep notes for everyone,” Marks told the South Florida Sun Sentinel, “and I think they have the best starting five in the Eastern Conference. I think they’re better than Brooklyn’s top five. I think they’re better than Milwaukee. You can go down the list there.
“I think the Kyrie [Irving] factor weighs in for me. I don’t see him stepping on the court in Brooklyn at all this year, unless, of course, there’s a new mayor and maybe that [vaccination requirement] changes.”
It is a prediction that comes with qualifiers, as all logical ones must, given the uncertainly of the 82-game regular-season roller coaster.
“My concern is their depth,” Marks continued. “That is it. If you asked me to pick out something, you are relying heavily on your former two-way guys, [Gabe] Vincent, Max [Strus].
“Markieff [Morris]? There’s a reason why Markieff has been a minimum guy the last three, four years. You’re relying certainly on P.J. [Tucker] staying healthy for most of the year. [Dewayne] Dedmon, guys like that, a band of misfits, I would say.”
But one current Heat reserve balances some of the bench doubts.
“‘Certainly Tyler [Herro] is the X-factor. He becomes the X-factor with that group,” Marks said. “So, yeah, if you told me Kyrie is there for the whole year, then I’m probably not picking Miami. And Milwaukee’s got a little bit of a hangover and a mixed bag for their bench, too. That’s why I pick the Miami Heat to come out of the Eastern Conference.”
Included in that optimal alignment, Marks said, would be a return of Victor Oladipo from his May quadriceps surgery.
“We’ll see if they can get anything out of Oladipo down the road, maybe January, February. I think that’s also, from a bench standpoint, certainly a wild card,” Marks said. “I think you need nine solid. They probably are around seven or eight right now. You’re certainly relying on guys that are a little unproven there. Their bench does not line up to Brooklyn’s. I think Brooklyn’s bench is probably the best in the league. But I have a lot of questions about durability about the guys in Brooklyn. I really do. I think that’s going to linger over them all year.”
As with many who forecast playoff success for the Heat’s revised mix, with Kyle Lowry joining Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, Marks is not necessarily as sold on regular-season success.
“I think they’re anywhere from three to six,” he said of potential playoff seeding. “I don’t think they’re a play-in team. I think they’re in that three-to-six range.
“I think they have playoff depth, eight guys. Regular-season depth, you’re probably using all 14 guys and your two-way guys.”
So tempered expectations early, but all-in with the late-April to mid-June portion of the schedule.
“Do I see them winning 55 games? I don’t,” Marks said. “I think that 47, 48 number is more realistic. But I have confidence when they get to the playoffs they can match up to some of these heavyweights.”
The confidence is such that Marks’ prediction for MVP is . . . Butler.
And his prediction for Coach of the Year is . . . the Heat’s Erik Spoelstra.
“I think they’re better built for the playoffs compared to the regular season,” he said.
IN THE LANE
GOOD FORTUNE: To say the final week of the preseason was a whirlwind for Avery Bradley would be an understatement. But the former Heat guard also found himself with a stroke of good fortune. Released by the Golden State Warriors, Bradley booked travel back to Miami, with a stopover in Los Angeles. It was during that layover that he was claimed off waivers by the Los Angeles Lakers. He then went out an offered a solid defensive showing against the Warriors, on a night former Heat players Kendrick Nunn and Trevor Ariza were sidelined for the Lakers. “I kept that same flight, got off the plane,” Bradley, who was with the Lakers in 2019-20, told The Athletic. “Like, c’mon man, can’t make that stuff up. Just like this is where I was supposed to be.”
BETTER CHANCE: Traded along with Heat 2020 first-round pick Precious Achiuwa in the August sign-and-trade deal that delivered Lowry from the Toronto Raptors, former Heat guard Goran Dragic said Achiuwa seemingly finds himself in a better place.“If I’m honest, last year they put him a little bit into a box,” Dragic said of the Heat during a Toronto media session. “Of course, he was a rookie.” Dragic said Achiuwa was reduced by the Heat to, “run hard, set screens, roll, catch the lobs and rebound.” He added of the power forward out of Memphis: “But this year we have already seen in preseason that he can do much more. He can bring the ball down the court, he can make plays, he can attack the big.”The Raptors during camp picked up Achiuwa’s rookie-scale option for 2022-23. A payoff was provided in Friday’s victory over the Celtics, when Achiuwa went for 15 and 15, without a foul or turnover.
PREFERRED DESTINATION: Speaking of relocating, after an uneven half-season run with the Heat, Nemanja Bjelica seems to have regained his NBA footing with his offseason free-agency move to the Warriors.“I knew I was going to fit in the system offensively,” Bjelica told the Mercury News.“When Steph [Curry] is on the court, everybody is open. You have so much time to think if you’re going to shoot, pass or drive.” Heck, he’s even forged a friendship with Warriors instigator Draymond Green. “I hated him,” Bjelica said. “But I always had respect for him and his game.”
WAITING GAME: Among those bypassed for rookie-scale extensions by the seasonopening deadline was former University of Miami guard Lonnie Walker, the No. 18 pick in the 2018 NBA draft by the San Antonio Spurs. Instead, Walker will be a restricted free agent next summer.“I’ve put in a lot of time and effort this year,”Walker told San Antonio’s Express News. “It will pay it’s dues.” Walker will earn $4.4 million this season. For now, Walker is maximizing his time with new Spurs advisor Manu Ginobili.“He is kind of tired of me,”Walker said. “I’m like a gnat on his ear, ‘Hey, Manu. Hey, Manu.’ But I’m going to keep on picking his brain.”
GRAMMY TURN: Taking his talents to the musical side after his forced NBA retirement due to blood clots, former Heat center Chris Bosh has been selected as a Grammy voter. “If you’d told basketball-obsessed teenage me, the one who didn’t have the time to learn piano, that he’d be voting for the Grammys one day, he might’ve laughed you out of the room,” Bosh wrote on his blog. “But I’ve worked way too hard to get here over the past few years not to take this privilege seriously. And now that I know more about the labor behind the music we all listen to, and what it means to be awarded for it, I want more people to do the same.”
NUMBER
Reserves to score at least 20 points in a Heat season opener, with Tyler Herro, with his 27 Thursday night against the Bucks, joining Dragic, who did last season with 20 against Orlando, and Willie Burton, who did it in 1990, with 25 against Washington.