Possible explanations

Amira Roess, professor of Global Health and Epidemiology at George Mason University’s College of Health and Human Services, agreed that Florida’s low death rate was surprising and suggested several possible explanations.

One possible reason is the vaccination rate in Florida picked up much later than other parts of the country, and Floridians also got the disease later than people in other states, meaning they acquired resistance more recently, which would make it stronger, Roess said.

Another explanation, she said, is Florida’s high death rate in the delta wave could be holding down the death rate now. “It’s possible that the individuals that were most susceptible to the virus already had it, were very sick or died,” she said.

But with the soaring infection rates of the past few weeks, she said it’s too early to conclude that Florida’s low death rate will persist.

“Death rates is one of those lagging indicators,” she said. “What we’re going to want to keep an eye on is the death rates for the next two or three weeks. And two or three weeks after the peak of reported COVID cases. Then you’re going to really want to pay attention to the death rate and the hospitalization rate.”

Typically as a pandemic wave begins, cases rise, then hospital COVID wards and intensive care units fill up and eventually reported COVID deaths will follow.

Omicron’s extraordinary transmissibility has been evident since it was first detected in South Africa when cases rose quickly. But cases in South Africa are now declining as are hospitalizations — and deaths have not come close to the highs seen over the summer and last winter.