More COVID deaths ahead

Still, even if omicron’s symptoms are milder, the variant is killing people and experts are predicting an uptick in Florida’s death rate.

Forman said he initially predicted 5,000 deaths during the newest COVID wave in Florida. He now has adjusted the number upward to at least 10,000.

“I think it will pass last winter’s wave in Florida. People have been lulled into believing omicron is benign, and it’s not benign. Florida is probably approaching a peak in cases. My expectation is deaths will follow.”

The Yale professor tweeted Friday: “Last year, it took us until January 8 or 9 for deaths to rebound from the holiday/ artificially depressed levels. I am expecting that we will see substantial growth in deaths for the next several weeks, as massive numbers of less virulent Omicron cases work their way through.”

Jeremy Redfern, press secretary for the Department of Health, offers an explanation on why he believes Florida’s death rate is lower at this time than other states.

“Vaccines are still great at what they should have been marketed for which is preventing severe illness, hospitalizations, and deaths,” he said.

Redfern notes that, according to the CDC, 79% of the state’s eligible population has had at least one dose of a vaccine, and “that does confer some level of protection.”

Redfern also agrees that Florida was poised better than other states when omicron arrived: “In theory, Florida has already dealt with what was going to happen during delta, and other states are still catching up in their COVID deaths.”

“Florida will likely see an increase in deaths from COVID in the weeks to come, but as long as the current pattern holds, it is not expected to be anywhere near what the state experienced during the delta wave,” he said.

He also noted that Florida’s death toll could have been worse if delta had resurged this winter. “We probably would have seen an uptick in deaths from delta if omicron had not become the dominant variant.”

Mary Jo Trepka, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Florida International University, said Florida’s death rate now is a reflection of November when the infection and hospitalization rates were low.

“We won’t really start to see omicron deaths for a few more weeks so people shouldn’t feel good about it yet,” Trepka said. “Any time you see a lot of hospitalizations, you will start to see more deaths. “With delays in reporting and certifying COVID deaths, she said, “I don’t think we will even have an idea until March about mortality related to this surge.”