South Florida Sun-Sentinel (Sunday)
Ahead of the game
Gators transfer Bonham product of Golden’s data-driven approach
GAINESVILLE — In the beginning, Florida transfer guard Trey Bonham was just a number to the Gators.
If coach Todd Golden’s calculations are correct, Bonham could one day become the face of a first-year staff ’s data-driven approach in a sport increasingly reliant on advanced statistics to identify and develop players.
During the Gators’ roster revamp, Bonham emerged as a data point, transformed into a video clip and soon received a phone call after his sophomore season at Virginia Military Institute. A face-to-face meeting in Gainesville followed by a scholarship offer sealed the deal before a growing list of suitors could counter.
“By the time the other schools came in my mind was already set on Florida,” Bonham, a native of Mobile, Ala., told the Orlando Sentinel. “The SEC, that was my dream. So as soon as I heard that really no other school in the country could beat them out.”
Golden and his staff beat the competition to the punch by crunching the numbers.
Bonham had several jump off the page, or rather the computer screen of Jonathan Safir — Golden’s director of basketball strategy and analytics.
Safir and Golden have worked together since 2018 at San Francisco, where head coach Kyle Smith matched two like-minded basketball junkies able to dig into the data.
Smith, now the head coach at Washington State, was ahead of curve with analytics during his time as an assistant at St. Mary’s College when Golden was a guard for the Gaels. Golden worked for Smith at Columbia for two seasons (2012-14) before leaving for Auburn. Safir served as Smith’s graduate manager in New York City during the
2015-16 season.
Years later, Golden and Safir speak their own language.
The two men could be mistaken for computer nerds or day traders rather than potential basketball savants putting their brainpower into rebuilding the Gators.
“If we get fired, we’ll just go to Wall Street make some money,” Golden joked.
Golden, though, is confident his process will pay dividends.
The 36-year-old saw the results during three seasons as head coach at San Francisco, where Golden coached the 202122 Dons to their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998.
Star shooting guard Jamaree Bouyea was lightly recruited out of the Monterey Bay area, while point guard Khalil Shabazz (Central Washington) and big man Yauhen Massalski of Belarus (San Diego) were transfers.
Bonham could be another find cut from a similar cloth. He does not appear to fit the profile of an SEC starter, but it depends on your profile.
Listed at 6 feet, 170 pounds, Bonham admittedly is 5-10, 165. After two seasons in the Southern Conference, his main suitors were mid-majors until Florida entered the mix.
Yet, Bonham checked several key boxes for Golden and Safir, who distill a player’s value into an equation.
“If Jonathan and I are talking about a player, we’ll say, ‘Trey Bonham. What is he?’ ” Golden said, before asking Safir, “‘What would you say?’ ”
Safir immediately replies, “113, 27.” Golden quickly asks, “What does that mean?”
Enter Bart Torvik, whose advanced stats are all the rage in the halls of Florida’s basketball office.
Among the more than a dozen metrics he compiles, offensive rating and usage rate are critical. There, Bonham scored a 112.5 ORTG and 27.1 USG, according to Torvik.
No Florida player had a better offensive rating, including star post player Colin Castleton (112.0).
The value in completing possessions — with a field-goal attempt, foul shot or turnover — is a measurable with even higher value for Golden and Co.
Bonham once again edged Castleton, who led the Gators at 26.8.
“Using possessions is actually is a skill,” Safir explains. “It’s the highest correlated, translatable skill across low major to mid-major, mid-major, high major to the NBA, AAU to college.”
Each of the five players on the court theoretically commands a 20% usage rate. A group with a combined rate above 100% is ideal. Anything less poses issues.
“You can’t survive with a with multiple low-usage guys on the floor at the same time,” Golden said. “You’re going to end up having guys that can’t create shots for themselves or each other, so you get bad shots. You’re just not any good.”
Golden knows from experience. During his senior year at St. Mary’s College, Golden’s usage rate was just 11% for an NCAA Tournament team with a few fellow starters in the mid to up 20s. But he made himself invaluable through remarkable efficiency.
Of 130 shot attempts, 122 were 3-pointers. Golden made 46% of them, to go with
82 assists, 27 steals and just 22 turnovers. Golden has a grander vision for Bonham. Based on the data and 11th-hour interest level, he could be one of the steals of the transfer portal.
“Like they say, numbers don’t lie,” Bonham said.
When he visited the Gators, Bonham didn’t realize all the numbers that existed.
Bonham’s knack for finishing around the basket added up to rate of 58.3 on close
2-point attempts, a number Golden calls “ridiculous.” Bonham relied on his ability to get to the foul line, but didn’t realize his free-throw rate of 44.4 Golden considered “elite.”
By comparison, Shabazz, Golden’s point guard at San Francisco, finished 2-pointers at a rate of 48.3 and posted a free-thrown rate of 19.3. Tyree Appleby, Florida’s starting point guard last season, was just 47.1 around the rim but did have a free-throw rate of 45.5.
Florida’s coaches enlightened Bonham during his recruiting trip.
“They kind of walked me through it,” he said. “Beforehand, I had no clue about it. I didn’t even know what I was doing on the court. I was just playing.”
The question is how Bonham translates his impressive numbers against superior competition. The NCAA’s Net Rankings rated the Southern Conference 12th while the SEC was third.
Although analytics are an inexact science, Iowa, Purdue, Missouri and BYU, among others, were soon in hot pursuit of Bonham when he signed confirmed the Gators’ analysis.
“We just did a good job of kind of figuring it out and getting him down here,” Golden said.
The Gators’ system allowed coaches to quickly cycle through hundreds of players in the portal.
“We can look at this and in 10 seconds decide if we’re gonna look deeper or not,” Golden said.
With Bonham in the fold, the next step is to develop him into an SEC-caliber player.
The Gators plan to rely heavily on the numbers to guide them.
“Ours and his secret,” Safir said of Golden, “is taking all this and manifesting it into a plan we then take to Trey. OK, now we have Trey. How can we get Trey better?”