South Florida Sun-Sentinel (Sunday)
Implications for playoffs are major
When the Dolphins run: Miami may look to lean on the run game a little more than it has as quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is unlikely to be available due to another concussion suffered this season. The Dolphins run game looks different than it did the first time they faced the Patriots in the opener. Now, it’s Jeff Wilson complementing Raheem Mostert, instead of Chase Edmonds. They should continue splitting carries after Mostert went for 45 yards on eight attempts and Wilson 37 yards and a touchdown on nine carries against Green Bay. The Patriots rank ninth in rushing defense at 107.8 yards allowed per game on the ground. They’ve held the Bengals and Raiders under 100 yards rushing in back-to-back games. Inside linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley is a rock in the middle behind New England’s base three-man front, leading the team with 109 tackles. Strong safety Kyle Dugger is strong in run support, as well. Edge: Patriots
When the Patriots run: Running back Damien Harris hasn’t played since Thanksgiving, and Rhamondre Stevenson has handled the workload since then. The second-year tailback and power runner is a load to bring down at 227 pounds. He has been up and down, but he is capable of going off like he did two weeks ago against the Raiders for 172 yards. He’s 56 yards away from a 1,000-yard season, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Dolphins defensive linemen Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler lead a run defense that ranks 10th in the NFL and would be much better if it didn’t give up big gains to scrambling quarterbacks. Mac Jones doesn’t present that dual-threat ability for the Patriots. Wilkins has been unblockable with 86 tackles up front for Miami, and inside linebackers Elandon Roberts (93) and Jerome Baker (92) are also vying for the team lead down the final stretch. Edge: Dolphins
When the Dolphins pass: This could be the biggest X-factor in the game: How does backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater handle the offense with Tagovailoa likely out? Bridgewater has shown some chemistry with wide receiver Tyreek Hill when he entered in relief in games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Minnesota Vikings.
Late in that loss to Minnesota, he also connected with tight end Mike Gesicki twice for fourth-quarter touchdowns, providing possible reason to believe a spark could come from the talented pass-catcher. Armstead and right tackle Brandon Shell will have to be sharp protecting the edges with Pro Bowler Matthew Judon (15½ sacks) and former Miami Columbus High standout Josh Uche (11½ sacks) a force rushing the passer. Edge: Even
When the Patriots pass: New England has just 14 passing touchdowns through 15 games. Jones had his early-season carousel with backup Bailey Zappe and has remained the starter since. He could have games like his 23-of-27 performance against the Jets, his 382 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings or last week’s outing against the Bengals where he nearly led a comeback were it not for a Stevenson fumble. But he’s also capable of going 13 of 31, like he did two weeks ago in Las Vegas. New England, ranking 21st in passing offense and with Matt Patricia the offensive play-caller, doesn’t do much to scare opponents through the air. Bradley Chubb has a hand injury stemming from the loss to the Packers. Edge: Dolphins
Special teams: The Dolphins have given up a lot of yards in the return game and don’t get many on returns of their own as coordinator Danny Crossman’s unit has struggled all season. A primary example was the first-quarter 93-yard kick return surrendered against the Packers last Sunday. Kicker Jason Sanders had a streak of 12 consecutive field goals made, but missed one in the second half vs. Green Bay. Edge: Patriots
Intangibles: With the last meeting taking place in Week 1, much can be thrown out from that matchup. It’s tough to go into Foxborough with rookie coach Mike McDaniel trying to rally a team on a four-game losing streak against the Patriots’ Bill Belichick, who owns eight Super Bowl rings between time as a head coach and an assistant. Edge: Patriots
PREDICTION: Dolphins 20, Patriots 16