Dolphins face Bills in wild-card round

When the Dolphins run: Miami found something on the ground against Buffalo in their 32-29 loss in Orchard Park on Dec. 17. The Dolphins ran for 188 yards on the Bills’ stout run defense, which was the second-highest total the Dolphins had in a game and second most the Bills allowed in one this regular season. If only coach Mike McDaniel had stuck with the ground game longer and in more short-yardage situations that Saturday night. The only problem is Raheem Mostert, who had 136 of those yards in that game, appears unlikely to play with a severely broken thumb suffered in last week’s win over the New York Jets. That unit had the league’s fifth-ranked run defense throughout the regular season. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver and linebackers Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds play a big part in that. Former Dolphin Jordan Phillips is a rotational defensive tackle and has his status in question for Sunday. Edge: Bills

When the Bills run: The Dolphins might just be the top NFL defense against the traditional ground game and stopping opposing running backs, but they are awful against scrambling quarterbacks. And that is always an issue when facing Buffalo and Pro Bowl signal-caller Josh Allen. In the last meeting, Allen ran for 77 yards on 10 carries, constantly extending drives with his legs and adding an extra element Miami has to defend. Christian Wilkins, in leading the Dolphins’ fourth-ranked run defense, has been unblockable. He finished the regular season with 98 tackles, most by any NFL defensive lineman since 1994. The combination of Wilkins and Zach Sieler has been outstanding against the run. Dolphins linebackers will have to be aware of Allen’s scrambling ability, possibly keeping a spy on him. That responsibility could also end up falling on safeties Jevon Holland or Eric Rowe at times. Edge: Dolphins

When the Dolphins pass: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was ruled out due to the concussion protocol on Wednesday. Miami is approaching the early part of the practice week as if third-string rookie Skylar Thompson will be the starter while backup Teddy Bridgewater deals with a dislocated pinky finger on his throwing hand. Thompson started the Dolphins’ playoff-clinching win over the Jets and went without a critical mistake, which was enough as he relied on the defense, run game and clutch leg of kicker Jason Sanders for the 11-6 win. The Bills lost future Hall of Fame edge rusher Von Miller earlier in the season, but they still have former University of Miami standout Greg Rousseau at defensive end. The secondary, of course, is headlined by safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Tre’Davious White. That unit will be playing for Damar Hamlin as he recovers from his frightening cardiac arrest suffered on the field Jan. 2. Edge: Bills

When the Bills pass: It’s all about stopping the Pro Bowl combination of Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Allen threw for 35 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and 4,283 yards, completing 63 percent of passes. Diggs had 108 receptions, 1,428 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2022. Then, Miami still has to worry about receivers Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie and Cole Beasley, tight end Dawson Knox — and Singletary and Cook can catch out of the backfield. This would be a great time to have the pass rush ignite this defense between Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb and Melvin Ingram. Left tackle Dion Dawkins will be responsible for protecting Allen’s blindside, but again, it’s important to keep contain on Allen so he doesn’t beat you with his legs. Edge: Bills

Special teams: Nyheim Hines just had a pair of kickoff return touchdowns in Buffalo’s win over the Patriots that helped Miami get into the postseason. The Dolphins have struggled on kick and punt coverage, so keep an eye on that. Sanders lifted the Dolphins into the playoffs with his 50-yard field goal with 18 seconds remaining against the Jets. Punter Thomas Morstead has been a plus for an otherwise mostly struggling special teams unit. Bills kicker Tyler Bass has made 27 of 31 field goals. The Dolphins actually had one of their better games on special teams last time in Buffalo, but the Bills have a lot of momentum with their unit after their Week 18 effort. Edge: Bills

Intangibles: It’s the possibility of Hamlin being back on the sideline for Buffalo after being discharged from his hospitalization that just leads one to believe it will be impossible for Miami to go into Highmark Stadium and pull off this upset.Edge: Bills

Bills 30, Dolphins 13

PREDICTION: