JUST WIN, BABY
OVER THE last three seasons, the bar to clear for teams who want to claim the AL Central has been as simple as it is low: finish above .500. The past three division runners-up have been unable to top 81 wins, creating very little in the way of drama in August and September. And October hasn’t been any better: none of the last three division champions have made it past the divisional round. In fact, no AL Central team has advanced to the ALCS since Cleveland in 2016, which was the last of a six-year run in which the division champ made it to MLB’S final four. Look further back and the trend toward futility runs even deeper: Since the wildcard era began in 1995, only two AL Central teams have won the World Series—the 2015 Royals and the ’05 White Sox.
Will the division be stronger this year? It’s hard to believe that it will. The Twins lost key contributors from last season’s 87-win club, while their two main competitors—the Guardians and Tigers—haven’t exactly had thrilling offseasons. Cleveland turned to new manager Stephen Vogt, who is just 17 months removed from his playing career and has the unenviable task of replacing future Hall of Famer Terry Francona. A.J. Hinch, hired to manage Detroit in 2021, is still looking for his first winning season there, and the Tigers are tied with the Angels for the league’s longest active playoff drought at nine years.
As for the Royals and White Sox, they are elbow deep in their rebuilds; both teams have second-year managers coming off 100-loss debut seasons. Kansas City has 23-yearold superstar Bobby Witt Jr. to build around but not much else, while Chicago finished its most recent push to contend with just one division title and zero postseason series wins.
Will this be the year the AL Central actually has two teams finish with winning records? It’s unlikely. But one team does have to win the division—those are the rules.