Dewine has huge poll lead in governor’s race over Whaley

Republican Mike Dewine is poised to capture a second term as Ohio governor: nearly everyone knows him, more than half think he’s doing a good job, and 45% say they’d vote for him, according to a USA TODAY Network Ohio/suffolk University poll.

That means Democrat Nan Whaley, the former Dayton mayor, has an uphill fight to unseat Dewine, who first ran for office in 1976, the year Whaley was born.

The poll shows 45.4% of likely voters are leaning toward Dewine, 29.8% for Whaley and 10.6% for independent Niel Petersen. Another 13.4% are undecided. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Nearly one in three likely voters has never heard of Whaley, the poll found. Of those who have heard of her, 24.6% hold a favorable opinion, 20% unfavorable and 24% are undecided.

“Despite all of the cacophony and chaos and the bad economy in Ohio, Dewine is well-positioned because he has an opponent a lot of people don’t know about and people aren’t pinning the economy or corruption on him,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

Paleologos said Petersen appeals to voters who don’t like Dewine or Whaley. He is a little-known pastor from Huber Heights who is campaigning to the right of Dewine. He attended the Jan. 6 “stop the steal” rally in Washington, D.C.

Paleologos said he expects Dewine will try to peel off Petersen voters to nudge his numbers up and Whaley needs to introduce herself to Ohio voters. He noted that among midterm voters who do know both Whaley and Dewine, Whaley only trails by seven percentage points.

When asked what she knows about Whaley, Andrea Krommes, an independent voter from Wooster, said, “I really don’t know, I haven’t started paying much attention to that at this point in time.”

But she had unambiguous feelings about Dewine. “I can’t stand the man, you know, with the gun laws and him being on board with the abortion issue. And I wish people would understand if you overturn Roe versus Wade, what else are they going to overturn?” she said.

More than 90% of likely voters told pollsters they’re interested in the governor’s race. And there are plenty of issues important to voters — the economy, abortion and gun control, for example — where Whaley and Dewine diverge.

Dewine is staunchly anti-abortion while Whaley vehemently defends access to abortion.

Dewine signed bills into law that expand gun rights. Whaley, who was mayor during the August 2019 mass shooting in Dayton, favors universal background checks and other gun control measures.

Darryl Dickens, a 63-yearold Black retiree, said he thinks Dewine makes some good decisions but then folds to pressure and changes course.

Dickens, a Youngstown Democrat who plans to vote for Whaley, noted Dewine expanded gun rights despite the escalation of shootings. “Why in the world would you do something like that?” he wondered. “That makes absolutely no sense.”

The top-line issue for Ohio voters is the economy but voters seem to be blaming President Joe Biden, not Dewine, the poll found. Almost eight in 10 likely voters rate Ohio’s economic conditions as fair or poor.

Asked her top issues,

Sandy Desfort, a 59-yearold white Republican from Warren, said, “Inflation, gas prices and, if we’re just talking Ohio, the jobs. It’s not about being able to get a job, it’s getting people to go to the jobs.”

Nearly three in four likely voters think state government is corrupt to some degree. Ten percent think it’s extremely corrupt — double the 5% who thought so when the same question was asked in June 2018.

The largest bribery and racketeering case in state history became public in July 2020 with the arrest of five men, including then Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder.

The corruption case involves big money, a Fortune 500 company, top political leaders, 4.5 million electricity customers across the state and the suicide death of a defendant.

The case isn’t expected to go to trial until January — months after Election Day.

Dewine also holds the upper hand in fundraising. He raised $1.6 million leading up to the May 3 primary and still has nearly $8 million in cash on hand, plus a $4 million outstanding personal loan. Whaley raised $615,152 and has $276,521 in cash on hand.

Clark County; ELLIS, Jennifer

Clark County; STRODES, Lawrence