If Ukraine falls, it will be the GOP’S Afghanistan
House Republicans hammered President Biden this week for his catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and rightly so — it was one of the worst foreign policy calamities in American history. But if Republicans cut off U.S. military aid to Ukraine, they will precipitate an equally disastrous foreign policy debacle — and they will own it in the same way that Biden owns the exit from Afghanistan.
Republicans should look at the damage the fall of Kabul did to Biden’s good name and imagine what the fall of Kyiv would do to theirs.
Already, their delays in new aid have tilted the battlefield in Russia’s favor. Last year, Russia made no military gains on the ground, whereas Ukraine succeeded in wiping out nearly one-third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet by the end of this January. But as aid has stalled on Capitol Hill, Russia has started taking territory again. If the Republican-controlled House doesn’t pass military aid soon, Ukrainians will start to run out of key weapons systems — and Russia will start making major advances.
Knowing that Kyiv’s stockpiles are running dry, Russia is preparing an offensive to start when the ground dries in late spring. Right now, U.s.-provided HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery
Rocket Systems) hold Russian forces at a distance. But if those missiles, as well as small-arms ammunition and 155mm artillery shells, are not replenished, Russia will begin to break through Ukrainian defenses.
Today, U.S. air defense systems keep Russian bombers out of the sky and allow Ukrainian forces to shoot down Russia’s drones and missiles. But if Ukraine runs out of missile defense interceptors, Russian planes will be able to bomb Ukrainian front-line positions with impunity. They will also be able to attack Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Then, they will almost certainly start carpet-bombing Ukrainian cities, forcing Ukraine to use its dwindling supply of interceptors to defend its civilian population and leaving its front lines exposed.
Eventually, as the interceptors run out, the civilian population will be left defenseless. Imagine the sight of manned Russian bombers flying over Ukrainian cities and devastating them. The result would be a humanitarian catastrophe. Russia would inflict civilian casualties on a scale unseen in Europe since World
War II, intentionally targeting schools, hospitals and residential buildings to break Ukraine’s will. (If you doubt it, just look at Russia’s brutal targeting and massacre of civilians during its barbaric 2016 air campaign in Aleppo, Syria.) A massive wave of refugees would begin fleeing the country, further demolishing the economy.
While Ukraine would not likely fall this year, the conditions would be set for a Russian victory in 2025 — just as (Republicans hope) Donald Trump takes office. So, Ukraine’s catastrophic collapse could well happen on the GOP’S watch, not Biden’s. Imagine the outrage as stunned Americans watch Russian forces marching into Kyiv, slaughtering and pillaging as they did in Bucha at the start of the war. Whom do Republicans think Americans would hold responsible?
Indeed, the political repercussions in many ways would be worse this time. At least in Afghanistan, Biden could argue that the time had come to pull U.S. troops out of harm’s way. But in Ukraine, there are no U.S. troops in harm’s way. Republicans would have abandoned Ukraine not to save American lives but to save money. That might not be as popular a decision as they think when Americans are seeing the lifeless bodies of Ukrainian women and children on their televisions.
Here’s the bottom line: Without U.S. aid, Putin’s forces will begin marching toward Kyiv and Ukraine will become the next Afghanistan. So for Republicans, a time for choosing has arrived: Unless you want to be blamed for the fall of Kyiv the way Biden is blamed for the fall of Kabul, send military aid to Ukraine.