Abortion pill case could affect election
Decision is 1st major one on the issue since Dobbs
WASHINGTON − During President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address this month, he departed from his prepared remarks on the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning the constitutional right to an abortion to directly address the justices sitting in the front row of the House chamber.
First, Biden reminded listeners that the court had said it was returning the issue of abortion to elected representatives, writing in its decision: “Women are not without electoral or political power.”
Then, in unscripted remarks, the president turned to the justices.
“You’re about to realize just how much you were right about that,” Biden said as Democrats applauded.
His unusual, personal warning came a few weeks before the Supreme Court is slated to take up its first big abortion case since its divisive 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization overturned Roe v. Wade.
On Tuesday, the justices will consider whether the Food and Drug Administration correctly allowed mifepristone to be dispensed through the mail; let nurse practitioners and physician assistants prescribe the drug in addition to doctors; and let pregnant patients take the drug up to 10 weeks into a pregnancy instead of seven.
More than 60% of abortions in the U.S. last year were completed with pills, according to the Guttmacher Institute, a research group that supports abortion rights.
The court’s decision on whether to reimpose significant restrictions on the abortion pill mifepristone could affect former President Donald Trump’s challenge to Biden’s reelection − but how much is unclear.
What it could mean for campaigns
The best outcome for Trump’s campaign, Ziegler said, is if the Biden administration wins both cases or if the decisions are hard for the public to understand.
That would help Trump argue that abortion isn’t going to be a big issue for the next president, she said, so “if you’re unhappy with Joe Biden about other things, go ahead and focus on that.”
The Supreme Court has a possible off-ramp to defuse Tuesday’s case. The justices could avoid ruling on whether the FDA’s decisions were proper by deciding the challengers – doctors and groups that oppose abortion – don’t have a sufficient claim of harm to sue the agency.
No matter how the cases are decided, the Biden campaign is expected to continue to make reproductive rights a top focus.
The Biden camp is arguing the reversal of Roe v. Wade, and the resulting abortion restrictions around the country, are a direct result of the judicial appointments Trump brags about.
And they’re highlighting a policy playbook put together by the conservative Heritage Foundation that includes additional steps Trump could take to restrict abortion if he returns to the White House. Those include using a 19th-century obscenity law to impose a de facto federal abortion ban.
“If he gains power, Donald Trump will go even further and strip American women of their freedom to make decisions about their own bodies,” said Sarafina Chitika, a Biden campaign spokesperson.
The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment about Tuesday’s Supreme Court case.
But Katie Glenn Daniel, state policy director for the prominent anti-abortion group SBA Pro-Life America, said Trump’s record on mifepristone is in stark comparison to Biden’s.
After restrictions on the FDA’s inperson pickup requirement for mifepristone were lifted in 2020 because of the pandemic, the Trump administration successfully petitioned the Supreme Court to restore them.
The requirement was then lifted by the FDA after Biden took office in 2021. In January, the FDA allowed pharmacies to become certified to dispense mifepristone, which CVS and Walgreens have done.
“The difference could not be more clear,” Daniel said.
She argued restrictions on mifepristone are politically popular once voters understand that they had been in place for years.
“It’s saying women should see a doctor,” Daniel said of the previous requirement that women make two in-person clinical visits to receive the abortion drugs and one follow-up visit. “If we can cut through the lies and educate and communicate that, I think people are going to say, ‘What’s the big deal?’ ”
Poll finds decline in importance
Nearly two-thirds of adults hadn’t heard anything about the abortion pill case in a February poll from KFF, a nonpartisan health research organization. That included about 60% of women of reproductive age living in states where abortion is currently available but could become more difficult depending on the high court’s ruling.
Abortion has fallen in importance to voters. The 12% who said it’s the most important issue in their 2024 vote is down from 24% in 2022, according to KFF.
“It was one of the more important issues deciding close elections in the 2022 midterms, but we haven’t seen it rise to the same level of importance currently for the 2024 election,” said Ashley Kirzinger, KFF’s director of survey methodology.
That could change depending on how the Supreme Court decides this case, as well as another it will hear next month.
In April, the Supreme Court will review whether federal law requires doctors in emergency rooms to perform abortions when needed to treat an emergency medical condition, even if doing so might violate a state’s abortion restrictions.
Mary Ziegler, an expert on the law, history, and politics of reproduction at the University of California, Davis School of Law, said Biden would get the biggest political boost if the court issues “big, splashy, sweeping anti-abortion decisions.”
“Every time there’s an instance of overreach, it is another moment of radicalization,” said Rachel O’Leary Carmona, executive director of Women’s March, who has organized protests from the start of the court hearings over mifepristone.