Is age just a number?
African traditions place great weight on the wisdom associated with age. The oldest members of traditional African communities were not only revered for having lived so long and survived so many hurdles of life, but they also were entrusted with making the most important decisions facing the community: decisions of war, peace, justice, and spirituality.
Now that the putative contestants for the 2024 presidential election presents a choice between two elders, the issue of age is front and center. Currently, 50 percent of the American population is over age 39. America has an aging population.
In 1900, demographers mapped the age of the U.S. population in five-year age categories. That mapping showed a distribution of the population that resembled a pyramid. The largest group of Americans were the youngest, and each five-year group got progressively smaller. That indicated that as time went by, the population would grow. However, if you look at the “population pyramid” today, it does not resemble a pyramid at all. It looks more like an amorphous blob. The population between ages 55 and 59 is larger than either of the age cohorts of Americans under 5 or between ages 5 and 9; and it is also as large as the population between 10 and 14.
The implications of this are slowing population growth, and the resulting challenges to the social contract that assumes a growing number of workers will care for the declining numbers of seniors and larger numbers of children. If the number of seniors is outpacing the growth in workers, it means that “prime age” workers will have a greater financial burden caring for the elderly.
It is not, however, a oneway street. The distribution of wealth by age tells a different story of who is or will support who. According to a recent report by the Federal Reserve Board, Americans under age 35 have a median net worth of $39,000 which increase for each age group until peaking for the 65-74 age group who have a median net worth of $409,000. While we elders appreciate primeage
Fred McKinney Americans working hard, and paying for our Social Security today, it will be younger Americans who get our much more substantial wealth when we elders pass on.
It is interesting that China also faces a population distribution that, like our own, is no longer a pyramid. And in China, there is now a concerted effort to promote larger families. In contrast, Nigeria has a population distribution that actually looks like a pyramid. The implication is that the Nigerian population is growing while the Chinese population is eventually going to shrink. And make no mistake, there is a link between the age distribution of the population and economic vitality of the nation. Younger populations are poised to have stronger economies. This economic and historical fact is something our current debate about immigration should keenly consider.
As someone who turns 70 this year, I increasingly feel that 80 is not so old. This is not how I felt when I was 20. At that time, if I happened to come across any 80-year-old relatives or family friends, I thought “well, they won’t be around much longer.”
The 1960 election between Kennedy and Nixon was the last presidential election when the American population distribution looked like a pyramid (except for the population between 20 and 40 that decreased because of the Depression and World War II). In 1960, the largest 5-year age cohorts were all under 20. We were a young and growing population, and we elected Kennedy, the younger candidate.
Younger Americans might want a president who is closer to their own age, but that is not a realistic option we have in the 2024 election cycle. I suspect this might be the last presidential election between septuagenarians. Younger Americans should be comforted to know that if we survive this election as a democracy, their time is coming. For now, this election is about whether one candidate is wiser than the other and deserves the immense power of the office. This is the African tradition.
Fred McKinney is the co-founder of BJM Solutions, an economic consulting firm that conducts public and private research since 1999, and is the emeritus director of the Peoples Center for Innovation and Entrepreneurship at Quinnipiac University.