A Republican Swan Song
“What is past is prologue,” is inscribed on the northeast corner of the National Archives Building in Washington, D.C. In contemporary use, this quotation by William Shakespeare from his play The Tempest represents the idea that history sets the context for the present. It exhorts us to learn from the past. But, do we?
Donald Trump lost his bid for reelection in a convincing fashion. As he departed Washington DC, on his last day as president he announced, “We will be back in some form.” I wondered then, as I do now, if his statement was a warning, a prediction or both.
If Trump truly plans to be the Republican Party’s Puppeteer in 2024, his pronouncement creates pressure for an already beleaguered Republican Party to toe the “Trump Line” or run the risk of alienating his political favor. As a former life-long Republican, here is my question: Is Donald Trump really the best hope to lead the Party into the future? What is history trying to tell us?
Let’s start with this. Donald Trump has run for president twice and lost the popular vote in both elections. In 2016, when Trump was an unknown political neophyte, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by garnering 3 million more votes than Trump.
In 2020, with 4 years of presidential experience under his belt, Donald Trump again carried the Republican Standard into the presidential election, this time against Joe Biden. The Democrats won the popular vote by more than 8 million votes. When Trump’s political ability was untested, 3 million more Americans voted for Hillary. After voters had a chance to experience Trump’s managerial talent, he lost the presidency by more than 8 million votes. Republicans need to put forth a candidate Americans want to vote for, not one they want to vote against.
In the last 40 years there have been 11 presidential elections. The Republicans lost the popular vote in all but 4 of those elections. Importantly, three of those wins (1980, 1984 and 1988) occurred during the presidencies of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. Then Republicans were doing things the voters could believe in. Republicans have only won the popular vote once since 1988. American voters are not buying what the Republicans are selling. The Party desperately needs to invigorate their platform with issues important to the majority of Voters.
Trump was never a majority president, not even for one day. Trump never spoke to the Republican majority; he only spoke to his base. While he was president, he did nothing to increase the Republican voter base. Normally, this approach to a re-election bid is contraindicated.
Many of Donald Trump’s loyal supporters see him as a messenger from God. There is literally nothing Trump could do that would not immediately be defended by his conservative media, his base and his most passionate congressional advocates. Such devotion is laudable; unfortunately, it seldom translates into more votes.
After losing the November election, it looked like Donald Trump was destined to continue as a moving force in Republican politics. He still controls a loyal base of Republicans; he is loved and hated simultaneously by the party’s hierarchy and viewed positively by about 70 million ‘Trumpublicans” who voted for him. Then he lost touch with reality.
He spent months flogging uncorroborated allegations of election fraud, feuded with party officials in battleground states over election results, unsuccessfully campaigned for two Republican incumbent senators in Georgia’s run-off elections, was impeached a second time and the capstone to his presidency was that he enraged a mob of supporters and sent them off to ransack the US Capitol. I am not inclined to believe that Americans who believe Donald Trump was responsible for inciting the insurrection will soon forget or forgive his betrayal of his country and his oath.
Since Trump was elected the Republican Party has lost 6% of its base. They need more voters to win elections. That won’t be easy. The older white voters that are the GOP’S base of support are quickly shrinking in number. Younger adults and minorities vote heavily Democratic, and their numbers increase with each passing election. If Republicans do nothing, based on demographic change alone, within a decade or two Republicans will be as relevant a yesterday’s news.
How can Republicans hope to win without appealing to the electorate? The Party is in an ideological landslide to the right. It is led by a “political chameleon” that is determined to bend the party to his narcissistic will. It is dominated by fragmented, frustrated and disorganized “Trumpublicans” who are sitting quietly as the Party lurches toward the political abyss.
History is crying out for the Republican Party to recognize their mistakes, to learn from them and to move forward united. If not, to paraphrase Spanish philosopher Jorge Santayana, “Those who do not learn the lessons of the past are condemned to repeat them. I wish them well.