Republicans can and must do better
race. This makes her the first Republican to challenge her former boss and ex-president. When asked about her candidacy Trump told NBC News, “Even though Nikki Haley said, ‘I would never run against my President, he was a great President, the best President in my lifetime,” I told her she should follow her heart and do what she wants to do. I wish her luck!”
During her announcement Haley said, “Things have to change.” I believe she is right. She called for a new generation of leaders, saying Biden's record was “abysmal” and that the “Washington establishment has failed us over and over and over again.” Taking a swipe at Biden, she called for mandatory “mental competency tests” for politicians older than 75. I believe there will be time enough to attack Democrats. Right now, Biden isn't the Republican Parties most pressing problem --- Trump is. The Party must decide whether Donald Trump or any Republican candidate, for that matter, can put this oh-so-divisible Republican Party back together again in time to win the 2024 presidential election?
Clearly, Donald Trump pulled Party leadership further right than many Republican voters cared to go. In order to support Trump, Republican leadership has not only drifted far from the wishes of the average GOP voter; they have also drifted far from the wisdom of the conservative values that have weathered the test of time with American voters. As a Republican of long standing I ask, “Is Donald Trump really our best hope to lead the Party into the future? What is history trying to tell us about Trump's past? Let's check the record.
Donald Trump has been the Republican presidential nominee twice. He lost the popular vote both times. In 2016, when Trump was a political neophyte, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by more than three million votes, Nonetheless, Trump ascended to the presidency through the Electoral College.
With 4 years of presidential experience under his belt Donald Trump stood for reelection as the incumbent President in 2020. This time he squared off against Joe Biden. The Democrats won the popular vote by more than eight million votes. So when Trump's political ability was unknown and untested, three million more voters favored Hillary. After voters had a taste of Trump's Presidential moxie, he lost the popular vote by more than eight million votes. Republicans need to put forth a candidate Americans want to vote for, not one they want to vote against.
Nikki Haley said, “Republicans have lost the popular vote in seven out of the last eight presidential elections. She is right. In the last 43 years there have been eleven presidential elections. The Republicans lost the popular vote in all but four of those elections. Importantly, three of those wins (1980, 1984 and 1988) occurred during the presidencies of Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. Then Republicans were doing things voters could believe in. In the last 31 years Republicans have only won the popular vote in one presidential election. American voters are not buying what Republicans are selling. The Party desperately needs to invigorate their platform with issues important to voters.
Donald Trump was never a majority president, not even for one day. When he was being unceremoniously drummed out of Washington, his approval rating was 34%, the worst evaluation of his presidency. His 41% average approval rating throughout his presidency was four points lower than for any of his predecessors in the history of Gallup polling. This includes President Biden. I hear many Republicans calling Biden the worst president ever. Yet, at 45% average polling, Biden's average is 4% higher than Trump's best average.
Former President Trump never spoke to the Republican majority; he only spoke to his base. During his presidency, he did nothing to increase the Republican voter base. In my opinion, he set the stage for the demise of his own presidency in 2020. The Party needs more, not less voters.
Many of Donald Trump's loyal supporters see him as a divine messenger. There is literally nothing he can do that would not immediately be defended by his conservative media, his base and his most passionate congressional advocates. Such devotion is laudable; but, will this adoration translate into sufficient votes to carry the day in 2024? Unfortunately, this type of reverence seldom does.
Since losing the 2020 election, Donald Trump continues as a moving force in Republican politics. He still controls a loyal base of voters; he is loved and hated simultaneously by the party's hierarchy and viewed positively by about seventy million ‘Religious Conservatives” who stand ready to vote for him hoping the third time will be the charm. It will be difficult, if not impossible, for Party leadership to walk away from the votes controlled by Donald Trump. History tells us a heavy toll will be paid if the connection isn't severed now.
Donald Trump has spent the last year flogging uncorroborated allegations of election fraud, feuded with party officials in battleground states over election results, unsuccessfully campaigned for two Republican incumbent senators in Georgia's run-off elections, he was impeached a second time and the capstone to his presidency was that he enraged a mob of ardent supporters and sent them off to sack the US Capitol. While the Capitol assault was unfolding Trump was almost giddy as he sat watching the insurrection play out from the comfort of the White House. I don't think that voters who believe Donald Trump was responsible for trying to overthrow our Democratic form of government by inciting the insurrection will soon forget or forgive the betrayal of his oath and his country.
Since 2016, when Trump was elected 6% of the Republican base has bolted from the Party. Before the exodus, Republicans were already the smallest Party. To win elections the Party needs to increase their ranks. That won't be easy for Republicans. The older white voters that are the GOP'S base of support are quickly shrinking in number. Younger adults and minorities vote heavily Democratic, and their numbers increase with each passing election. If Republicans do nothing, based on demographic change alone, within a decade the Party will be as relevant as yesterday's news.
How can Republicans hope to win without appealing to the electorate? The Party is in an ideological race to the bottom. It's led by a “political chameleon”
that is determined to bend the party to his narcissistic will. It is dominated by fragmented, frustrated, and disorganized “Trumpublicans” who are sitting quietly waiting for the “green light” from the boss, while the virtual leadership desperately hopes a guardian angel will spring forth from the ashes of the Republican Party to save the day. These observations do not bode well for the Party in 2024.
History is crying out for the Republican Party to recognize their mistakes, to learn from them and to move forward united. If not, as Mark Twain said, “There is no education in the second kick of a mule.” If there is no education in the second kick of a mule, there damn sure isn't any in a third kick!
Come on Republicans, we can and must do better.
Ricardo Inzunza, a native of San Diego, California, was posted in the Administration of President Ronald Reagan. He was appointed Deputy Commissioner of the former Immigrationandnaturalization Service by President George H. W. Bush; his office was the central source for the development, implementation and oversight of all immigration service policies and practices worldwide. Now, as CEO of RIA International, Ltd, Ricardo is often asked to serve as a business consultant to clients such as the World Bank and the People’s Republic of China. He can be reached at 662-694-2650, or riatria@aol.com.