Dolphins at Patriots
Playoffs in balance.
FOXBOROUGH — Give him his due. Give him his money. The Dolphins know enough about Ryan Tannehill after three years to know he’s not perfect, not yet polished, but he’s their quarterback for the foreseeable future.
So give him $15 million to lock him up for 2016, right?
This is where things get interesting for the Dolphins. It’s where Joe Philbin’s future enters the equation and why the Dolphins’ trip to New England has big-picture consequence even beyond the severe playoff questions.
The consequence isn’t directly Tannehill. He’s taken a big stride forward this year. He makes few mistakes. He’s already thrown for 21 touchdowns, meaning he has more touchdowns than any Dolphins quarterback since Dan Marino’s 23 in 1998.
Barring a shutdown, Tannehill will throw the most touchdowns in the franchise in two decades, since Marino threw for 30 in a still-in-his-prime season in 1994.
“He’s developed in a lot of ways he needed this year,” an AFC scout said. “He’s not a Top 10 quarterback. But he’s right outside that. And you couldn’t say that a year ago.”
That’s good news. Here’s
the bad: Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor smartly scaled back the offense because Tannehill can’t throw a consistent deep ball. He’s given no signs of being able to run a quickstrike offense.
In other words, he’s not Tom Brady, who will be on the other sideline today. And for the Dolphins to overtake New England some day they need someone to match up with Brady at quarterback and Bill Belichick at coach.
But Brady wasn’t Brady at that point in his career where Tannehill is. In his third season as a starter (and fourth overall), Brady had 23 touchdowns against 12 interceptions and an 85.9 rating that year (to Tannehill’s 21-9-92.6).
It wasn’t until his fourth season as a starter that Brady reached a then-career-high 92.6 quarterback rating — the exact number Tannehill has now in his third season.
“I look back and only understand now what I didn’t know then,” Brady said last year. “It takes some time. You don’t want to hear that in your first few years and fans don’t want to hear it. But experience is the best teacher.”
Does this mean Tannehill is tracking Brady?
Of course it doesn’t. Brady won three Super Bowls early in his career. He is a clear Hall of Famer. But it means if Brady can improve, Tannehill should be given the benefit of the doubt to do so as well.
If Mark Sanchez can learn to throw a better long ball — two of his four longest throws in the past five years are in his seven games in Philadelphia maybe Tannehill can learn the deep ball, too.
The trickier issue is
They missed a chance to save December last week against Baltimore.
who will make the decision on Tannehill. Philbin is the biggest voice in the room right now. But if he doesn’t upset the Patriots this game, if he then doesn’t make the playoffs for the third straight year, Dolphins owner Steve Ross will have a decision to make.
Does Philbin stay despite underachieving for three years? Do you give a fourth year to a coach whose time wouldn’t have a defining win? Would a new coach sign on with Tannehill’s development — or want a new guy? (Either way, the Dolphins need to draft a young quarterback).
The Dolphins don’t talk about that entering today. Tannehill doesn’t talk about this ever. He talks of chances. “A big game for us,” Tannehill said.
“Obviously, it’s not fully in our hands, but we can still control what we can control,” he said. “That starts with this game.”
Maybe the Dolphins can do what Joe Philbin says they can, which is play big in a big game in the manner they’ve seldom done in December for years. Maybe they have a miracle in them today, the football version of turning water into wine, and get on a run into the playoffs.
They missed a chance to save December last week against Baltimore. Now they get another chance today in Foxborough with a season, and maybe an era, on the line. Tannehill has done enough to get his big money. The question now is what coach pays him?