Draft deal too good to turn down?

Celtics offered four first-round picks to move up in draft

ORLANDO — When do you blink? When does the bidding reach a point where you reconsider your prized possession? When does quantity trump quality?

Based on the fact that Justise Winslow will be competing for the Miami Heat and Frank Kaminsky for the Charlotte Hornets at this week’s Orlando summer league, we have yet to receive our answer.

In both cases, the teams were offered what appeared to be an unfathomable amount of draft choices by the Boston Celtics to move off their choice in the first round of the NBA draft.

What has been reported and confirmed is the package included four firstround picks and a pair of second-round picks. What the Hornets and Heat declined to delineate was precisely what picks.

Whether it was to get the Hornets’ No. 9 pick or the Heat’s No. 10 pick, the objective was Winslow, the forward from Duke whose slide on draft night has been well chronicled.

So, for the moment, we’ll put aside the Hornets and Kaminsky and move to the team that had to be preempted and the player who was targeted.

The initial reaction certainly could have been a justifiable, “What the heck was Pat Riley thinking?”

But not all picks are equal.

Beyond that, the Heat rarely get to such rarified lottery air, because they rarely, during the Riley era, have offered anything as rancid as this past season.

So start here: Forget about the second-round picks. In NBA currency, they are spare change. Any NBA asset that can be obtained for cash is an asset of limited value.

Then consider the offer of the four first-round picks (the Heat declined comment on the specifics of the four picks offered, as did Hornets General Manager Rich Cho

So start here: The Celtics held two first-round picks in this year’s draft, with both in play until those selections were executed.

At No. 16 they chose Louisville point guard Terry Rozier, in what some viewed as a reach. At No. 28, with a pick acquired from the Los Angeles Clippers, they selected Georgia State shooting guard R.J. Hunter.

So you first have to answer the question of whether you would trade Winslow for Rozier and Hunter. Then you certainly could move on and insert into those slots players that might have been more palatable to the Heat, perhaps Wisconsin forward Sam Dekker (who went at No. 18) and UCLA power forward Kevon Looney (who went No. 30).

So would you make that deal for Winslow?

Yes, two other firstround picks also would have been included in the proposal for Winslow. But, again, it’s all about quality of picks.

Here’s what Boston otherwise has at their firstround disposal in upcoming drafts:

2016: Celtics’ own; Dallas Mavericks (protected through first seven picks); Minnesota Timberwolves (protected through first 12 picks).

2017: Celtics’ own (which can be swapped for Brook- lyn Nets’ first-round pick); that Mavericks pick with the same protection if not previously acquired.

2018: Celtics’ own; Nets; that Mavericks pick with the same protection if not previously acquired; Memphis Grizzlies (protected though first 12 picks).

2019: Celtics’ own; that Mavericks pick with the same protection if not previously acquired; Grizzlies (protected though first eight picks if not previous acquired).

As with any trade, there would have been room for negotiation, but because of so much of the protection on other picks, it comes down to where you envision the Celtics and Nets going forward. And that’s in the Eastern Conference, where any team can be a playoff team.

Certainly, with the Heat still on the hook for one future first-round pick to the Philadelphia 76ers and two others to the Phoenix Suns, it would have been an avenue to restock for future drafts.

But it’s the draft. And it’s Pat Riley. Oil and water.

There are, of course, no sure things in the draft, with at least three years usually required to judge value.

In Winslow, the Heat believe they already have found value. Based on his draft-night efforts, Celtics President Danny Ainge apparently agrees.

But now we also have a unique baseline to analyze that Winslow value, should any player this year drafted No. 16 or later, or any at No. 28 or later, turn into values themselves.

Draft night created renewed hope for the Heat. It also opened years of potential second-guessing.

iwinderman@tribpub.com

HECTOR GABINO/EL NUEVO HERALD Pat Riley, left, turned down a package of draft picks from the Boston Celtics for the Heat’s first-round draft pick this year. The Heat used the pick to select Duke forward Justice Winslow, right.