Campaign politics leave TPP deal appearing all but dead
WASHINGTON — The sweeping Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact was once seen as a rare bipartisan initiative that a Republican-led Congress and President Barack Obama might actually be able to push through in an unruly election year.
But that was before the rollicking 2016 presidential campaign turned globalization into a potent symbol of job loss and wage stagnation.
Now the 12-nation trade pact appears all but dead as Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump promise to scrap it and negotiate a better one.
“I think this is in the rearview mirror now,” said Gene Sperling, former director of the National Economic Council, at an event Wednesday sponsored by The Atlantic at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.
One of the final blows came Tuesday after Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a longtime Clinton ally, suggested that even though Clinton had reversed her support for the pact amid opposition from unions and supporters of primary rival Sen. Bernie Sanders, she might find a way to revive the TPP, if elected.
That revived concerns among Clinton’s critics about her credibility and forced the campaign to reiterate her opposition.
“She doesn’t support TPP now, she is not going to support TPP after the election,” campaign manager Robby Mook said Wednesday. McAuliffe, too, quickly walked back his comments.
But the renewed attention gave Trump another chance to attack Clinton and ensured that if she tried to change her position again the political costs would be far higher.
The Obama administration hopes an opening still exists for Congress to give final passage to the deal after the November election in a lame duck session. But Republicans, including House Speaker Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky — both advocates of free trade — have casts doubts about a lame-duck vote.
The turn of events has been swift and decisive, and an unlikely outcome from barely a year ago when lawmakers of both parties joined forces in an unusual partnership to open a new era of trade relations. At the time, Republican and Democratic leaders envisioned the trade deal not only as a needed economic boost, but a strategic geo-political move to gather Pacific allies away from the powerful orbit of China.
But on the presidential campaign trail, another narrative was gaining popular support.
Trump launched a tirade against manufacturers that had moved their operations abroad, turning trade into one of his signature issues.
On the Democratic side, Sanders launched a similarly populist attack from the left. It left Clinton with almost no other option than to abandon the deal she had once promoted as Obama’s secretary of state.