Derby could be duel for the ages
Potential Stanton-Judge contest will be a brute show of power.
All of thebuzzis focused on the Monsters of Mash. It is the dream Home Run Derby matchup, the two biggest boppers in a game of one-upmanship to see whocan hit the ball farther and with greater frequency.
Imagine what Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton did last year in belting 61 homers over three rounds out of Petco Park in San Diego, in duplicate. Because Stanton now has the perfect foil in New York Yankees rookie Aaron Judge, who in the first half of the season hit the most homers (30), the longest (495 feet) and the hardest (121.1mph).
“That would be sweet if those two were in the final to put on a show,” said former Marlin Derrek Lee, a two-time All-Star. “I don’t know if the game has ever seen two guys with as much power as those guys.”
Yet there isno guarantee of Stanton and Judge meeting in the final Monday night at Marlins Park, though the odds point to it — Stanton is the 7-to-5 favorite to win, just ahead of Judge at 7-to-4, according to online sportsbook Bovada.
They will each need to win two preliminary rounds to set up the winnershowdown that most fans, and certainly ESPN, wants to see under the single-elimination format instituted two years ago.
In addition to the other six competitors, the x-factor will be the jumbo dimensions of the ballpark. It’s a subject Stanton has grumbled about often in the 5½ seasons since the Marlins opened their home in Little Havana, though he has hit 13 of his 26 homers there this season.
“I think because it is a big ballpark — it is a big-
boy ballpark, that in the end the biggest, strongest guys are going to outlast the others,” said Karl Ravech, who is replacing Chris Berman as the voice of the Derby on the ESPN broadcast.
Ravech added that due to the size and strength of Judge (6 feet 8) and Stanton (6-6), they can “pop a ball up and it’s a home run. The other guys, for the most part, have to hit it.”
Success for everyone in the field will be dictated to a large degree by where they hit the ball.
The vast reaches to the right of the home run sculpture in center at Marlins Park, with a max distance of 407 feet to the 13-foot wall, are best to be avoided.
The seats in right field are easier to reach at 335 feet down the line, compared to 344 in left. That offers an advantage to the four left-handed hitters in the Derby — Marlins first baseman Justin Bour, along with Cody Bellinger, Mike Moustakas and Charlie Blackmon.
“I watch [Bour] taking batting practice there every day,” said former Marlin Jeff Conine, now a studio analyst for Fox Sports Florida. “I’ve seen a lot of balls deposited in that home run porch [in right]. So he might be a dark-horse contender.”
Marlins Park has been the eighth-toughest in the majors to hithomeruns this season. But it has been yielding homers at a higher rate than in any previous season.
With the planned opening of the exterior wall for the Derby (roof closed), there could be balls soaring over the Budweiser Bar in left and bouncing out of the park. The upper deck in right should see plenty of visits fromthe lefties.
Keep in mind that Petco Park is another of the tougher yards to hit one out. Itwas nomatch for Stanton, who hit 39 homers longer than 440 feet, including a pair of 497-footers, in last year’s Derby.
Given the presence of Judge and others in this slugfest, Stanton’s record could be in jeopardy.
“I would lying if I didn’t say I’d love to see Judge go head-to-head against Stanton in the final, but I know going into this you’ve got eight quality guys,” Ravech said. “So I don’t necessarily think that it needs to be Judge versus Stanton in the championship [round]. Because whoever beats one of those two is going to have to do something likely very special.”
Look for Ravech to bring a different approach to telling the Derby story after 23 years of Berman’s incessant “back, back, back … gone.” Ravech, who has filled numerous roles at ESPN, including host of “Baseball Tonight,” will work with analysts Jessica Mendoza and Mark Teixeira, aswell as Buster Olney.
Their plan is to let the hitters make most of the noise.
“We’re there to complement what is arguably the greatest Home Run Derby field we’ve ever seen,” Ravech said. “It’s television. You guys at home know when it’s a home run. I think our goal is trying to humanize these guys. Tell stories about who they are, how they got to where they are, what they were when theywere younger.
“But the description of the home run, I haven’t thought for a second about how I’m going to call home runs, probably because I don’t think that’s overly important.”
With some of these sluggers, the homers speak for themselves.