Home Run Derby matchups
FIRST ROUND
NO. 1 VS. NO. 8
Giancarlo Stanton (26): The Marlins slugger will be attempting to join Ken Griffey, Jr., and Yoenis Cespedes as the only back-to-back winners. He has the advantage of competing in his home stadium and the experience from last year’s record-setting total of 61 homers (a combined 5.15 miles of homers, the 20 hardest-hit of the night and the 10 longest). But his average exit velocity this season of 91.9 mph is only fourth among competitors in this Derby, and his average home run distance of 412 feet is lower than usual for him. Odds to win: 7-to-5
Gary Sanchez (13): The Yankee catcher’s home run total is low due to missing nearly a month with a biceps injury. But while his inclusion was questioned (mainly by Logan Morrison), his power stroke is legit. A year ago he set a record by hitting 20 home runs in his first 51 major league games (bettered this season by Cody Bellinger). His average homer length this season of 427 feet leads the majors among players with 10 or more; his average exit velocity of 93.5 mph also tops Stanton’s. Odds: 16-1
NO. 2 VS. NO. 7
Aaron Judge (30): The rookie’s power numbers are off the charts, and that is reflected in the force he imparts on the baseball, with an average velocity of 96.2 mph, according to MLB’s Statcast. The Yankee phenom has the four hardest-hit balls of the season (top at 121.1 mph) and eight of the top 15. He has hit the longest homer (495 feet). He won the only other home run contest he entered, at the 2012 CollegeWorld Series as a sophomore at Fresno State. Odds: 7-4
Justin Bour (20): The Miami first baseman is the dark horse in the field, but Marlins Park tilts in favor of left-handed hitters. He hit 11 of his first-half homers there, all but three pulled to right field. He regularly peppers the home run porch there during batting practice and has launched several shots into the second deck during games. With Marlins outfield coach Lorenzo Bundy pitching to him, he can find a comfort zone if he can cluster long balls close to the line and void the distraction of vying with Judge. Odds: 14-1
NO. 3 VS. NO. 6
Cody Bellinger (25): At 21, the Dodgers rookie would be the youngest Derby winner. He didn’t make his debut until April 25, then broke Sanchez’s record with 21 homers in his first 51 games. His left-handed swing will play well in Marlins Park, and he’ll have his father Clay, who played four years in the majors, serving pitches where he likes them. The younger Bellinger has a knack for making solid contact, ranking high in hard-hit balls on the sweet spot of the bat, or on the barrel in Statcast parlance. Odds: 6-1
Charlie Blackmon (20): The Rockies center fielder is a superb all-around hitter though not usually thought of in terms of the long ball. His average home run distance of 409 feet is better than Bellinger’s (402), though the altitude in Colorado is a factor. But he has hit seven homers on the road. He will also be aiming for the short porch in right in this match-up of lefties. Odds: 14-1
NO. 4 VS. NO. 5
Mike Moustakas (25): He has already exceeded his best single-season homer total as well as the Royals’ mark for most before the break. He was set as the first Kansas City player in the Derby since Danny Tartabull in 1991, then won the Last Vote to make the American League team for the All-Star Game. His homers have averaged 402 feet. Odds: 14-1
Miguel Sanó (21): The third baseman will attempt to become the second Twins player to win the Derby (Justin Morneau, 2008). His average exit velocity of 93.9 mph is second to Judge’s best of 96.2, and his average home run distance of 414 feet trails only Sanchez among this field. A right-handed hitter, he shows power to all fields, with eight homers to center and five to right, but in spacious Marlins Park will be better served aiming more to left. Odds: 12-1 DERBY RULES The single-elimination tournament format was part of the rule changes implemented in 2015. Hitters get four minutes in each round to hit as many home runs as they can, with each batter getting one 45-second timeout in each of the first two rounds. They can earn bonus time for hitting at least two home runs of 440 feet or more. Players who make it to the championship round receive two timeouts, with one lasting 45 seconds, the 30 seconds. Ties in any round will be broken by a 60-second swing-off with no stoppage of time or additional time added. If a tie remains after the swing-off, batters will engage in successive three-swing swing-offs until there is a winner.