McCain absence could hamper GOP
Senate Republicans will be left with a one-vote majority while he is treated for cancer.
WASHINGTON — To Senate Republicans, John McCain is a real-life hero, a leader and a trusted voice who speaks his mind in the often muddled milieu of Washington politics.
He is also a crucial vote in their slim two-seat majority in the 100-seat Senate.
McCain’s absence from the Senate as he battles a diagnosis of brain cancer in Arizona complicates the Republican leadership’s already difficult route to ushering its agenda through Congress.
With just two votes to spare on key issues needing a simple majority for passage, every senator matters. McCain’s inability to stride into the chamber to cast his vote could seriously stymie approval of key legislative items.
The first test will come nextweek.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has planned a vote on the Republican promise to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. Previous attempts, including one this week, collapsed when more than two GOP senators announced their opposition. President Donald Trump has pushed senators to press ahead anyway.
As it stands, McConnell does not appear to have enough support from his ranks to advance any version of the GOP legislation, ranging fromsimply repealing Obamacare to repealing andreplacing it, andmaking major funding reforms to Medicaid at the same time. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, theGOPplanswould throw 22 million to 32 million additional Americans into the ranks of the uninsured.
McCain’s vote on the health care overhaul was never guaranteed. He, too, has voiced deep reservations about its impact on residents in Arizona, where the state’s Republican governor worries about the severe cuts toMedicaid that could leave thousands of low-income and disabled people without coverage.
But withoutMcCain, the path to passage becomes even tougher. Since no Democrats are expected to support the plan, Republicans cannot afford to lose more than one vote. As many as 10 have expressed deep concerns, and at least four have said they would vote against each of the current plans.
“The challenges are obvious,” said Josh Holmes, a Republican strategist and former top adviser to McConnell, who years ago came up with the campaign slogan to “repeal and replace” Obamacare.
And it’s not just health care that’s jeopardized. Tax reform, which leaders were also hoping to approve under a special procedure for simple-majority passage, could also be at risk.
Other must-pass legislation, such as the need to raise the debt ceiling to continue paying the nation’s bills and an annual spending bill to keep government running, will take 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. They could be even more difficult.
“Mitch has the toughest job in Washington to begin with, so he’s got to take all of this into account,” said Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, a former speaker of theNorth Carolina statehouse.
Exactly how long McCain will be away is unclear.
His medical team at the MayoClinic inPhoenix said he might undergo chemotherapy or radiation, so it’s possible he could be away for someweeks. For now, he is unable to fly after undergoing an operation last week to remove a blood clot in his head.
Even before that, there were concerns about his health. At a recent Senate hearing, McCain seemed confused during his questioning of firedFBIDirector James Comey. He attributed it to being tired after staying up too late to watch a baseball game.
Fewhave publicly speculated about whether McCainwould step down. If he did, the balance of the power in the Senate would not change. Arizona law says the governor would appoint a replacement, who must be from McCain’s party, meaning a fellow Republican.
But McCain signaled Thursday he has no intention of sitting out the Senate. He dashed off a tweet appreciative of the warm words he has received, adding “unfortunately for my sparring partners in Congress, I’ll be back soon, so stand-by!”
TheSenate has been here before. Just a few years ago, when Democrats held the majority, then-Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., was trying to pass the Affordable Care Act under President Barack Obama. Sen. Edward Kennedy, DMass., was forced to miss votes during his prolonged fight against brain cancer.
The Democrats’ 60-seat super-majority at the time was further complicated when 92-year-old Sen. Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., became ill.
When a crucial vote was scheduled, both would be on the floor. Kennedy, who was susceptible to infection during treatment, chartered a private plane to fly to Washington when his vote was needed, said James Manley, a Democratic strategist and former top aide to both Reid and Kennedy. Byrd was pushed to the floor in his wheelchair.
“Republicans keep pointing out that Democrats had 60 votes during the first part of the Obama administration, but Sen. Reid had two sick senators,” Manley said.
“He brought them in when needed for votes,” he said.
In theweeks ahead, leaders will need to assess when they can call on McCain to return to Washington, and the senator will have to decide when he can make the trip.
The Los Angeles Times’ Mark Z. Barabak in San Francisco contributed.