Analyses: Millions would lose coverage
New GOP bid may cause ‘between significant and vast’ losses in U.S.
GOP’s proposed Obamacare replacement expected to strip benefits and raise costs.
WASHINGTON — Republicans’ latest bid to roll back the Affordable Care Act will likely leave millions more Americans without health insurance in coming decades and strip benefits and protections from millions more, a growing number of independent studies suggest.
Health care safety nets in dozens of states stand to lose more than $200 billion by 2026 and hundreds of billions of dollars more in the years that follow, the analyses indicate.
And while the magnitude of the coverage losses is difficult to quantify because the new GOP proposal — authored by Sens. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. and Bill Cassidy, R-La., — leaves crucial details to be determined, studies of similar proposals suggest tens of millions of Americans would see major changes to their health coverage.
“The vast majority of states lose money, and some lose truly jaw-dropping amounts,” said Jocelyn Guyer, managing director of Manatt Health, a consulting firm that has analyzed the Graham-Cassidy proposal.
“That suggests coverage losses that are likely somewhere between significant and vast,” she said.
Analyses by other experts — including consultant Avalere Health, the nonprofit Kaiser Family Foundation and the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning think tank — reach similar conclusions, suggesting the bill would likely erode the historic insurance gains recorded in recent years.
Fitch Ratings added its own caution, warning in a report that states would face significant “budgetary challenges” under the GOP proposal, which, in turn, could put pressure on state support for schools, cities and colleges and universities.
GOP leaders have issued repeated assurances in recent days that the GrahamCassidy bill would not erode protections extended by the 2010 law, often called Obamacare. “More people will have coverage, and we protect those with pre-existing conditions,” Cassidy said Wednesday in an interview with CNN.
But as they rush to vote, Republican lawmakers are not waiting for an independent analysis by the Congressional Budget Office, which lawmakers customarily rely on to asses complex bills. A spokeswoman for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., told Politico on Wednesday that McConnell plans a vote next week.
President Donald Trump added his encouragement from New York, where he is attending the United Nations General Assembly. “They’re going to do a great job,” the president told reporters.
CBO analyses of previous GOP repeal plans have estimated a loss of coverage for 20 million or more.
And GOP claims about the current bill are contradicted by virtually every independent analysis, as well as assessments by leading patient advocates, hospital groups, insurers and physicians.
No major group representing patients or people who work in the health care system backs the GrahamCassidy proposal.
On Wednesday, even health insurers that have largely remained quiet in the ongoing repeal debate this year publicly criticized the GOP plan.
The Blue Cross Blue Shield Association cautioned it would likely destabilize insurance markets, “making coverage more expensive and jeopardizing Americans’ choice of health plans.”
Also joining opposition to the bill Wednesday was New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who warned Graham-Cassidy would injure residents of his state. Christie, who heads Trump’s opioid commission, was the seventh GOP governor to publicly oppose the proposal. Fifteen Republican governors sent a letter this week backing Graham-Cassidy.
Late-night TV host Jimmy Kimmel jumped into the debate as well, deriding Cassidy for going back on a promise he made to Kimmel earlier this year that he would not back any plan that didn’t protect sick Americans.
“This guy, Bill Cassidy, just lied to my face,” said Kimmel, who this year recounted his newborn son’s congenital heart condition in an emotional discussion about the importance of robust insurance protections.
“I am sorry he does not understand,” Cassidy said on CNN in defense of his bill, arguing that it would protect people with preexisting conditions. “I think the price will actually be lower.”