A tropical depression may become a hurricane (Nate) as it heads toward the northern Gulf Coast with the cone’s center eying the Florida Panhandle.

A tropical depression that formed Wednesday is forecast to become a hurricane as it heads toward the northern Gulf Coast with the cone’s center aiming at the Florida Panhandle.

If it does strike Florida as Hurricane Nate, it’s expected to do so this weekend, likely on Sunday.

Earlier Wednesday, the cone’s eastern edge was just north of the Tampa Bay area, but by the afternoon the cone had shifted west, putting the potential area of U.S. landfall between Florida’s Big Bend and coastal Mississippi and Louisiana.

The northern Gulf Coast could see “direct impacts from wind, storm surge and heavy rainfall,” said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the Miami-based National Hurricane Center. “However, it is too early to specify the timing or magnitude of these impacts.”

The storm isn’t expected to veer toward southeast Florida or farther south on the Gulf Coast, such as Naples, Feltgen said.

Carl Erickson, a senior meteorologist at the Pennsylvania-based forecasting company AccuWeather, also said it was looking increasingly unlikely that the

storm’s track would shift east and head toward South Florida.

Erickson said it looks like Nate would be a Category 1 hurricane, which would make it a still-dangerous but least intense type of hurricane, with wind speeds of between 74 and 95 mph.

“That’s probably the most likely right now,” Erickson said. “A lot will be determined over the next 24 to 36 hours.”

The storm, known as Tropical Depression 16, formed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. It was east of the coast of Nicaragua and traveling slowly, at 7 mph, to the northwest.

Its wind speeds were about 35 mph for most of the day Wednesday. It was expected to become a tropical storm, which means it would have maximum sustained wind speeds of at least 39 mph, late Wednesday night or early this morning.

The storm was projected to move over eastern Nicaragua and Honduras today before re-emerging in the Caribbean Sea by Friday.

It would traverse Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula before arriving into the Gulf of Mexico by early Saturday.

Forecasters say conditions in the Gulf are favorable to the strengthening of tropical storms and hurricanes, with warm temperatures and little opposing winds — referred to by forecasters as wind shear.

The center of the cone, as of the Wednesday 8 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, was aiming at the vicinity of Panama City Beach in the Florida Panhandle.

Meanwhile, the hurricane center was also issuing updates on the rain and windy conditions that have been affecting South Florida earlier in the week.

It’s an area of showers and thunderstorms affecting southern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas. These storms are not expected to become a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane, but there is a chance they’ll continue to bring heavy rain and strong winds in some parts of the area over the next couple of days, the hurricane center said.

brettclarkson@sunsentinel .com or Twitter @BrettClarkson_