Who has the edge?
Miami faces a big challenge in Atlanta
When Dolphins run
This has been the biggest problem with the Dolphins’ offense this season. If Miami can get RB Jay Ajayi (261 yards, 3.4 yards per carry) and the ground game going, they can have a strong offense. If not, they’re putting it all on the defense and passing game. Atlanta is 11th in rushing defense (93 yards allowed per game) and they’ll test Miami’s offensive line, which has been struggling since the opener. If Ajayi has his way, the Dolphins will use his favorite play, the outside zone run, often. If the Falcons have their way and shut down the running game, it’s tough to see Miami winning.
Edge: Falcons
When Falcons run
RB Davonta Freeman (285 yards rushing, 4.1 yards per carry, 5 TDs) will be tough to handle. So will Pro Bowl C Alex Mack. But the Dolphins’ run defense (fourth in the NFL, 75.5 yards allowed per game) has been strong, and could be even stronger with DT Jordan Phillips back from an ankle injury. The linebackers have improved with the additions of Lawrence Timmons and Rey Maualuga. And the defensive line has developed quality depth. Atlanta can survive on its passing game. But the degree of difficulty is increased if the Falcons are forced to survive on their passing game alone.
Edge: Dolphins
When Dolphins pass
Coach Adam Gase points to the offensive line as the biggest problem with the passing game. QB Jay Cutler (3 TDs, 3 INTs, 74.8 passer rating, 30th in NFL) has avoided major blame so far. Getting the passing game going will be tougher if WR DeVante Parker (ankle) is out. Pro Bowl LB Vic Beasley (15.5 sacks in 2016) will be someone to watch. The Dolphins have allowed 10 sacks so far, which brings it back to Gase’s contention. If the offensive line struggles with protection again it becomes more important for Cutler to find a way to make plays and utilize wide receivers Jarvis Landry and Kenny Stills to get the job done. So far, Cutler hasn’t demonstrated that ability.
Edge: Falcons
When Falcons pass
QB Matt Ryan (5 TDs, 5 INTs, 87.5 passer rating, 20th in NFL), the reigning league MVP, has been off to somewhat of a slow start. Consequently, so has Pro Bowl WR Julio Jones (19 receptions, 295 yards, 15.5 yards per reception, 0 TDs), who has been battling a hamstring injury. WR Mohamed Sanu (hamstring) is also slowed. But Miami’s pass defense (22nd in NFL at 234 yards allowed per game) has been suspect. Young CBs Xavien Howard and Cordrea Tankersley will have their hands full. Timmons has helped the nickel package. The pass rush (six sacks last week vs. Tennessee) is the Dolphins’ best hope of slowing down the Falcons passing game.
Edge: Falcons
Special teams
Atlanta Pro Bowl K Matt Bryant (back) is questionable so the Falcons signed K Mike Meyer to the practice squad. Dolphins K Cody Parkey (5-of-5 FGs, 2-of-4 XPs) has raised eyebrows with his two missed extra points. Miami P Matt Haack (47.4 yards per punt, 7th in NFL) has been solid, as has Falcons P Matt Bosher (46.2 yards per game, 13th in NFL). Miami is splitting PR duties between Landry (6.2 yards per return, 22nd in NFL) and Jakeem Grant (6.6 yards per return, 20th in NFL) while kick returns are handled by Grant (20.8 yards per return, 15th in NFL) and RB Kenyan Drake. Atlanta WR Andre Roberts is worth watching on kick returns (22.6 yards per return, 8th in NFL) and punt returns (10.4 yards per return, 6th in NFL).
Edge: Dolphins
Intangibles
The Dolphins had a tumultuous week after former offensive line coach Chris Foerster had a scandalous video surface online after last week’s game, leading to Foerster’s resignation . ...
Atlanta is coming off a bye week, but the Falcons are still beaten up physically as a result of a home loss to Buffalo (23-17) two weeks ago . ...
Since last season, the Dolphins are 10-0 when Ajayi has 18 or more carries . ...
The health of Parker (ankle) could be a big factor in the passing game . ...
Gase has eased on his harsh criticism of the offense. He has also continued to keep Cutler low on his list of blame for the offensive problems. But Gase is still frustrated, and he admitted that Ajayi and Landry are very frustrated, too. Edge: Falcons PREDICTION: Falcons 24, Dolphins 14