Who has the edge?
Miami’s defense should dominate Ryan Fitzpatrick
When Dolphins run
Running backs Kenyan Drake (26 carries, 176 yards, 6.8 yards per carry, 2 TDs) and Damien Williams (28 carries, 65 yards) have produced big plays but haven’t consistently moved the chains. Drake, who has a 66-yard touchdown run and a 42-yard run the past two weeks, has rushed for five first downs while Williams has three. The Buccaneers are 14th in rushing defense (109.9 yards allowed per game), and DT Gerald McCoy remains one of the league’s best. Miami’s offensive line will be under pressure to consistently open holes.
Edge: Bucs
When Buccaneers run
RB Doug Martin (93 carries, 305 yards, 2 TDs) hasn’t been anything special this season. And the Bucs are 28th in rushing (82.8 yards per game). But this is a Dolphins’ run defense that’s now 20th in the NFL (116 yards allowed per game) after allowing 294 yards to Carolina last week and 174 to Baltimore three games ago. Miami is allowing 4.4 yards per carry, 26th in the NFL. Still, you’d like to think the Dolphins’ front seven could drum up enough energy to keep the Bucs under control.
Edge: Dolphins
When Dolphins pass
QB Jay Cutler (12 TDs, 6 INTs, 86.7 passer rating, 22nd in NFL) must find a way to lead this offense. And he must get on the same page with wide receivers DeVante Parker (30 receptions, 378 yards, 1 TD), Jarvis Landry (61 receptions, 472 yards, 5 TDs) and Kenny Stills (33 receptions, 408 yards, 4 TDs). Last week, there were too many misfires due to miscommunication. Miami is 29th in passing at 195 yards per game, and their 5.8 yards per attempt is 31st in the league. The Bucs are 29th in pass defense at 266 yards allowed per game, and their 14 sacks are 28th. Look for running backs Drake and Williams to remain active in the passing game. Getting yards after the catch will be essential for Miami. Keep an eye on CB Brent Grimes, who has two interceptions this season.
Edge: Dolphins
When Buccaneers pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (5 TDs, 3 INTs, 82.6 passer rating) is subbing for Jameis Winston (shoulder). The unfortunate thing for Miami is Fitzpatrick has wide receivers Mike Evans (40 receptions, 532 yards, 4 TDs) and DeSean Jackson (33 receptions, 504 yards, 2 TDs) as primary targets. Miami’s pass rush, led by Cameron Wake (6.0 sacks) has been relatively quiet recently. Cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Cordrea Tankersley must be sound in their technique. Miami is 15th in pass defense at 225 yards allowed per game while the Bucs are No. 3 in passing offense at 262 yards per game, much of that with Winston. The Dolphins need big plays from the pass rush and defensive backs.
Edge: Bucs
Special teams
Miami K Cody Parkey (9 of 10 FGs, 12 of 15 XPs) doesn’t get many field goal chances, but he’s been good with three late-game kicks this season. P Matt Haack (45 yards per punt, 22nd in NFL) continues to show signs that he’s a rookie. But he’s learning. Kickoff returners Jakeem Grant (22.6 yards per return) and Senorise Perry (21.8 yards per return) haven’t been difference-makers yet, and the same is true for Grant (6.0 yards per return) on punt returns. Tampa Bay K Patrick Murray (7 of 8 FGs, 5 of 5 XPs) has been good since replacing K Nick Folk. His three field goals last week were essential to the victory. P Bryan Anger (43.5 yards per punt, 29th in NFL) hasn’t been good. KOR Bernard Reedy (20.7) has been more effective as punt returner (10.2 yards per return).
Edge: Dolphins
Intangibles
This week was supposed to be a bye for both teams before Hurricane Irma postponed what was originally a Week 1 matchup . ...
Miami is on a three-game losing streak while Tampa Bay ended a five-game losing streak last week. ...
Miami (4-5) still has an outside chance of making the playoffs in the AFC, while Tampa Bay (3-6) is practically done in the NFC. The Bucs have been one of the biggest disappointments of the league so far this season . ...
Coach Adam Gase took a positive approach with his team after last week’s 45-21 loss at Carolina and perhaps it’ll make a difference. Gase has torched his team a couple of times after losses this season . ... Edge: Dolphins PREDICTION: Dolphins 21, Buccaneers 18