Who has the edge?
Game will swing on the Dolphins DBs against Brady
When Dolphins run
Running backs Kenyan Drake (33 carries, 180 yards, 5.5 yards per carry) and Damien Williams (38 carries, 143 yards, 3.8 yards per carry) have been home run hitters the past three games with runs of 42, 66 and 69 yards. That would be more acceptable if they sprinkled in some singles and doubles, but those have been rare. Miami is 29th in rushing at 80.4 yards per game. New England is 24th in run defense (119.9 yards allowed per game) and their 5.0 yards per carry average is last in the league. So the big play is a possibility. But it’s doubtful Drake and Williams can be game winners.
Edge: Dolphins
When Patriots run
Running backs Dion Lewis (82 carries, 386 yards, 4.7 yards per carry), James White (35 carries, 140 yards, 4.0 yards per carry) and Rex Burkhead (30 carries, 116 yards, 3.9 yards per carry) have combined to form the league’s 16th-ranked rushing game (106 yards per game). Miami is 14th in run defense (109.9 yards allowed per game) and is coming off a performance in which it allowed only 53 yards against Tampa Bay. The Patriots don’t rely heavily on their run game but they can do damage. The Dolphins must remain vigilant and fundamentally sound, which means solid gap integrity and sure tackling.
Edge: Dolphins
When Dolphins pass
Matt Moore (3 TDs, 3 INTs, 77.6 passer rating), who is starting in place of Jay Cutler will likely have a rough day. Miami’s passing game, ranked 20th in the league (212 yards per game) has been spotty, at best. The 79.6 passer rating is 27th in the NFL and the 6.1 yards per attempts is 30th. New England is last in pass defense (282 yards allowed per game) and tied with Miami for 26th in sacks (17). But the Patriots, led by Pro Bowl S Devin McCourty, have a knack for game-planning and taking away what you want to do. This will be a tough matchup for the Dolphins.
Edge: Patriots
When Patriots pass
QB Tom Brady (22 TDs, 2 INTs, 110.9 passer rating, 1st in NFL) is having another outstanding season. He’s enough of a difference-maker to win the game. TE Rob Gronkowski (41 receptions, 619 yards, 5 TDs) is having another good year and wide receivers Brandin Cooks (45 receptions, 786 yards, 4 TDs), Danny Amendola (43 receptions, 440 yards, 2 TDs) and Chris Hogan (33 receptions, 438 yards, 5 TDs) will swamp Miami’s defensive backs. The pass rush is largely negated because Brady gets rid of the ball so fast. This game is on Miami’s secondary, and that’s a huge mismatch against Brady.
Edge: Patriots
Special teams
Miami K Cody Parkey (11 of 12 FGs, 14 of 17 XPs) has been getting better as the season progresses and the same seems true for P Matt Haack (45.3 yards per punt, 18th in NFL). The return game still hasn’t been a differencemaker between kickoff returners Jakeem Grant (23.8 yards per return) and Senorise Perry (21.8 yards per return) and punt returners Grant (5.6 yards per return) and Jarvis Landry (7.7 yards per return). Coverage units have been solid. New England K Stephen Gostowski (26 of 29 FGs, 28 of 29 XPs) has missed three field goal attempts between 40-49 yards. P Ryan Allen (43.4 yards per punt, 30th in NFL) has struggled. KOR Lewis (30.8 yards per return) and PR Amendola (11.2 yards per return, 4th in NFL) are slippery and must be watched.
Edge: Patriots
Intangibles
Miami is on a four-game losing streak and allowing 35.5 points per game during that stretch; New England is on a six-game winning streak and averaging 26.8 points per game during that stretch . ...
Miami hasn’t won at Gillette Stadium since 2008, the Wildcat game . ...
Brady hasn’t thrown an interception in his past four games . ...
Drake and Williams have ripped off a long run in each of the past three games and the Patriots’ run defense has been susceptible to big runs, having surrendered a run of at least 20 yards in each of the past four games . ...
Miami’s offense, which didn’t score more than 20 points in its first five games, has scored 20 or more points in four of its past five games. Unfortunately, four of those games are losses, and one was a shutout loss. Edge: Patriots PREDICTION: Patriots 34, Dolphins 10