If Heat are content, are they also in denial?
MIAMI — As always, it is about how you extrapolate the numbers.
As he addressed the media Friday, Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra noted, “It’s been well documented since our 11-30 start two years ago that we’ve basically been playing .600 basketball.”
That math is on point, the percentage exceptional.
But if you instead pick up from the start of this past season and factor in the 1-4 just-completed playoff series against the Philadelphia 76ers, the percentage drops to .517.
And if you start with the most recent sampling, you wind up at exactly 11-11 from the start of March until season’s end.
Sometimes trends can be telling.
To Spoelstra, it all is part of the learning curve.
“What we’re playing for and competing for is the ultimate prize. I think it was a great first two steps last year to bang on the door, this year to get in,” he said of his team’s playoff return.
“Our guys really grew from all these experiences. It was a group that grew. That’s ultimately what you want. You want see progress.”
But is that what the Heat saw, and could that lead to a repeat of what now comes off as the irrational expectations of last summer?
Josh Richardson grew; James Johnson regressed.
Justise Winslow stepped forward; Hassan Whiteside fell back.
Goran Dragic evolved; Tyler Johnson devolved.
Wayne Ellington emerged; Dion Waiters disappeared.
Kelly Olynyk and Bam Adebayo were shuffled in; Willie Reed and Rodney McGruder were shuffled out.
“You saw,” Spoelstra said, “a transformation in certain players.”
The end of last season, even in the absence of a playoff berth, came with a sense of pride; the fight was there to the finish.
The end of this season, in light of a dreary playoff showing, came with a sense of submission; the talent deficit against the 76ers was undeniable.
Spoelstra did what he had to do Friday at AmericanAirlines Arena. He’s the coach, in the trenches with the players.
But the Heat’s ultimate personnel authority is team President Pat Riley, and what he says — and, more to the point, does — is what matters most. He is defined by nothing short of championship visions.
The current conundrum for the Heat is an ironic one — the way the franchise rewards those who commit most to the iconic development program. It’s what got Whiteside, James Johnson, Tyler Johnson and Waiters their lucrative contracts — the willingness to maximize potential in the name of the culture.
The problem is when there is nothing more to be extracted, when the talent is maxed out, as it may well have been with Whiteside, Waiters and both Johnsons. It potentially could lead to a similar trap with Winslow’s impending extension negotiations.
The Heat have excelled from a personnel standpoint in turning marginal into good into very good. But this is a league where greatness trumps all.
“I loved coming to work with this group,” Spoelstra said.
But the offseason, the personnel season, is when the emotion has to be stripped from the equation by Riley and General Manager Andy Elisburg. If that had been the case last summer, perhaps there would not have been this slide back to .500, which remains the sum total of these past two seasons and this largely stagnant roster.
Spoelstra said he sees otherwise.
“We see progress,” he said. “We see growth.
“Oftentimes, through these kind of pains these kind of adversities, we grow to the next level from here.”
We now have Spoelstra’s policy statement.
“We believe, as much as anything, you grow through continuity,” he said. “It’s hard to start over.”
It also is hard, perhaps harder, to admit it’s also not good enough.
“That’s,” Spoelstra said, “going to be Pat and Andy’s responsibility.”