Miami Heat outlook: A player-by-player breakdown Derrick Walton Jr.
MIAMI — The goal was of something greater, that by bringing back the core that went 30-11 over the second half of last season, seeding that core with salary-cap money, mixing in a first-round draft pick and an intriguing free agent, the payoff would be something at least into May.
Instead, here stand the Miami Heat, done for the season after a single playoff victory, this time inspiration to draw upon to pick up where they left off.
Instead, they find themselves left without a draft pick, without cap space and with pieces that hardly will entice on the trade market.
So where do the Heat stand? Here’s where:
Bam Adebayo
Age: Turns 21 on July 18. Contract status: Due $3 million in 2018-19 on second year of rookie-scale contract, with team options for 2019-20 and ’20-21.
Heat outlook: Even after unexpected contributions, the Heat have to figure out what Adebayo will become. An athletic power forward in need of increased range? An undersized replacement center if Hassan Whiteside is traded, one who can grow into his body? Or could Adebayo yet be a trade enticement to allow the Heat to offload an unpalatable contract of a player elsewhere on the roster?
Luke Babbitt
Age: Turns 29 on June 20. Contract status: Becomes unrestricted free agent on July 1.
Heat outlook: There always is the chance of a minimum-salary reunion, but it would be a laterrather-than-sooner move, considering how little time the Heat were able to find for the outsideshooting big man during this justcompleted reunion. It’s almost as if the Heat went through the playoffs saying, “Why couldn’t it have been Marco Belinelli instead?”
Goran Dragic
Age: Turns 32 on May 6. Contract status: Due $18.1 million in 2018-19, with player option for $19.2 million in 2019-20.
Heat outlook: The Heat’s approach to Dragic could open a window into the thinking about both the short-term and longterm outlooks. The veteran point guard certainly is good enough to get you into the playoffs, but it’s not as if the Heat are close enough to championship contention to carry such a win-now contributor at these salary numbers. A trade appears as possible now as any time during Dragic’s Heat tenure, through no fault of his own.
Wayne Ellington
Age: Turns 31 on Nov. 29. Contract status: Becomes unrestricted free agent on July 1. Heat can exceed salary cap to resign Ellington with his Early Bird rights to new contract, starting at $11 million for 2018-19, with such a move likely to put team into the luxury tax.
Heat outlook: Make no mistake, the Heat appreciate Ellington both as a person and as a player, the type of essential piece any team needs amid the NBA’s current 3-for-all offensive approach. But does a team this far from title contention go into the luxury tax for a reserve who could get crowded out of minutes once Dion Waiters returns? This will be among the team’s most difficult offseason decisions.
Udonis Haslem
Age: Turns 38 on June 9. Contract status: Becomes unrestricted free agent on July 1. Heat can exceed salary cap to resign Haslem with his Early Bird rights up to NBA maximum.
Heat outlook: There is plenty to be said for loyalty, but there also is plenty to be said about opening up roster space for younger players who could potentially be developed at little cost in the G League, perhaps moving Derrick Jones Jr. to a standard contract. Ultimately, Haslem’s fate could be determined as part of a two-forone package with a Dwyane Wade return.
James Johnson
Age: Turns 32 on Feb. 20. Contract status: Due $14.7 million in 2018-19 on second year of four-year free-agent contract signed last summer, with $15.3 million due in 2019-20 and player option for $16 million in 2020-21.
Heat outlook: In many ways, Johnson was going to serve as the fulcrum of the Heat’s pivot from last season’s 30-11 second-half finish to something better this season. Didn’t happen. It again comes down to whether you can teach an older dog new tricks. This is the type of contract that likely only could be moved with an extreme sweetener attached (Richardson? Winslow? Adebayo? A future draft pick?)
Tyler Johnson
Age: Turns 26 on May 7. Contract status: Due $19.2 million in 2018-19 on third year of four-year contract signed in 2016 offseason, with player option for $19.2 million in 2019-20.
Heat outlook: Welcome to arguably the most untradeable NBA contract this side of Joakim Noah. There still is time, however, to deal Johnson with his $5.9 million 2017-18 cap number until June 30. But it’s not as if a receiving team wouldn’t want either plenty in the way of sweeteners or an unpalatable contract to go back the other way. Pat Riley, one of your greatest contract challenges awaits.
Derrick Jones Jr.
Age: Turns 22 on Feb. 15. Contract status: Becomes unrestricted free agent on July 1. Eligible for another two-way contract.
Heat outlook: The fact that the Heat trusted the high-flying swingman for eight spot starts speaks volumes about how valued the two-way-contract prospect stood at times. But the Heat also did not see the need to clear a playoff roster spot, perhaps indicating muted interest. Another two-way contract is possible, but so is a standard, minimum-scale deal from a team lacking a draft pick in June.
Rodney McGruder
Age: Turns 27 on July 29. Contract status: Due nonguaranteed $1.5 million in 2018-19 on final year of contract, with Heat with June 30 guarantee date.
Heat outlook: Arguably the best value contract on the roster, one the Heat assuredly will guarantee by the needed deadline, it will be interesting to see if McGruder, now months removed from his preseason leg surgery, returns to the rotation role that proved so effective over the second half of 2017-18. At this price, he also could turn into a potential trade sweetener. It comes down to: Do the Heat need or plan to use McGruder as a rotation player?
Jordan Mickey
Age: Turns 28 on July 9. Contract status: Heat hold $1.6 million team option for 2018-19 on final year of contract.
Heat outlook: The luxury tax could get in the way, but there certainly were moments of promise sprinkled in over the first season with the energetic power forward. Without a draft pick and much flexibility in free agency, Mickey could find himself the next player put through the Heat’s offseason developmental program in hopes of again developing from within.
Kelly Olynyk
Age: Turns 28 on April 19. Contract status: Due $11.1 million in 2018-19 on second-year of four-year contract signed last summer, with $11.7 million due in 2019-20 and player option for $12.2 million in 2020-21.
Heat outlook: While some initially questioned the four-year, $50 million contract last summer, this clearly proved to be the greater value than the similar deals to Dion Waiters and James Johnson. Erik Spoelstra, in fact, to a degree moved away from Hassan Whiteside’s style to that of Olynyk. It might not be overstatement to now consider Olynyk a core piece.
Josh Richardson
Age: Turns 25 on July 18 Sept. 15.
Contract status: Begins fouryear extension with $9.4 salary in 2018-19, then due $10.1 million in 2019-20, $10.9 million in 2020-21 and player option for $11.6 million in 2021-22.
Heat outlook: There is value to Richardson’s extension, even if he doesn’t move forward as a starter. While Richardson stands as part of the roster regeneration, it is too early to consider him a core component. Because of the structure of his contract, he was not eligible to be traded in cap calendar 2017-18 until the Heat’s season ended. That restriction is now gone.
Dwyane Wade
Age: Turns 37 on Jan 17. Contract status: Becomes unrestricted free agent on July 1.
Heat outlook: There clearly is more to be offered, as stood apparent during the playoffs. And the embrace from the fans could be meaningful if the Heat otherwise decide to take a step back with the roster. But there also is the impending return of Dion Waiters from his season-ending ankle surgery, the four-fold increase in Tyler Johnson’s pay, a remaining discount season with Rodney McGruder, the emergence of Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson. So what role if a return?
Dion Waiters
Age: Turns 27 on Dec. 10. Contract status: Due $11.6 million in 2018-19 on second-year of four-year contract signed last summer, with $12.1 million due in 2019-20 and $12.7 million due in 2020-21.
Heat outlook: The Heat have yet to get a complete season out of Waiters and also have yet to see him in true pressure situations, having missed the playoff race at the end of 2016-17 due to his ankle issue and then this season’s playoffs due to ankle surgery. They have to get a read on what they have, if for nothing more than to resurrect a marketable asset. Age: Turns 24 on April 3. Contract status: Becomes unrestricted free agent on July 1. Eligible for another two-way contract.
Heat outlook: On a roster already loaded with guards, the best available offer to Walton could be another two-way contract. Otherwise, he will be a name kept on file in case trades or injuries were to thin the backcourt depth. While there were considerable strides in the G League, the talent is not yet at an NBA level.
Hassan Whiteside
Age: Turns 29 on June 13. Contract status: Due $25.4 million in 2018-19, with player option for $27.1 million in 2019-20.
Heat outlook: The elephant in the room, and not because of anything approaching oversized play in the playoffs. Between Spoelstra’s seeming greater comfort with Olynyk and Adebayo to an overall NBA style that has reduced the impact of power players, the ultimate questions are whether the Heat would be willing to trade Whiteside for pennies on the dollar or to continue to stomach the upcoming dollars.
Justise Winslow
Age: Turns 23 on March 26. Contract status: Due $3.5 million in 2018-19, with right to negotiate rookie-scale extension by Oct. 31.
Heat outlook: Having already committed significant dollars first to Whiteside and Dragic in the 2016 offseason and then to James Johnson, Waiters, Olynyk and even Richardson last summer, it will be interesting to see how far the Heat will be willing to go with Winslow at extension time, or whether it first would require thinning the payroll. An early consideration: Should Winslow’s extension be worth more than Richardson’s (four year, $42 million).