Scott, Nelson support in Senate race virtually tied.

The battle between Bill Nelson and Rick Scott for U.S. Senate in Florida is neck and neck.

A Florida Atlantic University poll scheduled for release today shows Republican Scott with 44 percent of voters surveyed, Democrat Nelson with 40 percent, and 16 percent undecided.

That’s a four-point advantage in Scott’s favor, but it’s within the survey’s margin of error, which means the race could be tied — or Scott could have a lead.

The poll from the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative reported that among voters who said they are “very likely” to vote in November, the race is tied at 45 percent.

The poll results indicate Nelson and Scott are well known — unlike the multiple candidates for governor in both parties. “The Senate race has two political figures that have been very visible for some time, so there’s not as much deciding that has to go on,” said Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at FAU and research fellow at the polling initiative.

With a close race and few undecided voters, Wagner said the outcome will likely depend on which side can best motivate its voters to make sure they actually cast ballots – something that is difficult to measure six months before Election Day. “What’s the intensity that your voters are going to be at … which side does a better job of getting their voters out? It’s more about turnout than it is about persuasion.”

The survey was conducted Friday through Monday, a little less than a month after Scott formally launched his campaign against Nelson, a race that the two sides had in reality been running for months.

Scott received extensive publicity for his kickoff tour, and he’s been on the air with early television advertising. His campaign reportedly had poured $5 million into television ads, and he’s benefitted from advertising from a super political action committee he used to head and from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Scott’s numbers improved from an FAU poll in February, which showed Nelson leading Scott 44 percent to 34 percent.

Nelson is seeking a fourth term. Scott has served two terms as governor but can’t run for reelection because of term limits. He’s effectively been a candidate for much of the last year but didn’t officially enter the race until April 9.

The survey of 1,000 Florida registered voters was conducted online and through automated calls to people with landline telephones. The FAU Business and Economics Polling Initiative said it had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Breakdowns for smaller groups, such as men, women, Democrats and Republicans, have higher margins of error.

Monica Escaleras, director of the FAU Business and Economics Polling Initiative, said the final poll results were weighted in an attempt to more accurately reflect gender, party affiliation, ethnicity and education.