Trump takes big risk by leaving Iran deal
President Trump could have tried to fix the Iran nuclear deal. Instead, he’s trying to nix it — with no idea of what might happen next.
Continuing to operate on the theory that whatever former President Barack Obama did was wrong, Trump announced Tuesday that he would pull the United States out of the 2015 agreement, reimpose economic sanctions on Iran and add new restrictions. Noting his longtime vow to kill the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Trump said, “When I make promises I keep them.”
Trump’s slogan is “America First,” but a better description would be “America Alone.” Trump withdrew from the Trans Pacific Partnership, the trade deal that could have countered China’s attempt to dominate the Pacific Rim at our expense. He withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord, which could have begun to reduce the threat from rising seas — a threat that matters especially to Florida.
Again with Iran, Trump ignored the pleas of key allies, in this case Great Britain, Germany and France. With Russia and China, they also are part of the Iran deal and could be subject to punishment from violating whatever sanctions Trump decides to impose.
Like his soulmate, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump consistently has misrepresented the deal. Trump said the Obama administration was wrong to trust Iran. But former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, a nuclear physicist who helped negotiate the deal, stated at the time and has repeated that it was “never about trust.” That’s why the Obama administration insisted on the most stringent verification system in any nuclear agreement.
Among other things, Trump also claimed that Iran would be “free” after just seven years to pursue nuclear weapons. Some provisions do expire after 10 and 15 years. The verification system, however, is permanent. So are some restrictions on production of fissile material. So is Iran’s pledge to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, which International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors can monitor. Trump’s seven-year breakout claim was false.
On Tuesday, Trump listed the many grievances the United States has with Iran, among them support for terrorist groups such as Hezbollah and development of ballistic missiles that could carry nuclear weapons. He cited those issues as reasons to withdraw from the deal.
Again, however, the sole mission of this agreement was to block Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon quickly and secretly. Had the United States and our partners insisted on addressing other issues, there would have been no deal.
Trump noted Netanyahu’s presentation last week of documents from Iran’s nuclear program that Israeli intelligence had obtained. Both men claim that the documents undercut the rationale for the deal because they show that Iran lied about its nuclear intentions.
In fact, negotiators worked under the premise that Iran had lied and retained enough capacity to restart the program, making it essential to restrain development. The IAEA concluded in 2015 that Iran — despite its denials — had engaged in nuclear work after 2003, but had not done so since 2009. Inspectors have not found violations of the agreement since it took effect in January 2016.
So Netanyahu has achieved his goal of separating the U.S. from the Iran deal. Trump can brag about demolishing the Obama legacy. Then what?
If our allies remain in the deal, as they have promised, Trump will further have ruptured the U.S.-European alliance. European sanctions contributed much more to the deal than U.S. sanctions. If China continues to buy Iranian oil, which the deal made possible, it will more than offset any new American sanctions.
Trump’s decision also could make trouble for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, the moderate against the ruling clerics. He sold the deal as a way to help Iran’s economy, but many Iranians haven’t seen the benefits. New sanctions will embolden hardliners who opposed the deal by saying Iran couldn’t trust the Great Satan. In this country, gas prices could spike.
Trump and Netanyahu are betting that Iran won’t leave the deal, restart its program — without monitors watching — and touch off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.
They are making this bet — to the point of seeking regime change — as Netanyahu not only talks of war with Iran, but wants the power for only him and his defense minister to declare war.
Ironically, Trump closed his remarks Tuesday by speaking of upcoming talks with North Korea over its nuclear program. But why would Kim Jong-Un make concessions after Trump has shown that he wouldn’t necessarily honor the deal?
Trump warned that if Iran restarts its nuclear program, “They will have bigger problems than they have ever had.”
Such tough talk will please critics of the deal, but tough talk will mean nothing if Trump has guessed wrong.