Door open for Triple Crown winner
Justify could be his own biggest foe in Belmont Stakes
When a Triple Crown is on the line in the Belmont Stakes, the race boils down to one essential question: Will he or won’t he?
That’s certainly the case this year, when Justify will arrive in New York without any obvious rival for 3-yearold thoroughbred supremacy.
The Kentucky Derby and Preakness champion could face as many as 10 challengers Saturday, most of them far better rested. But the more pressing opponents are his own potential limitations and the inherent difficulty of the Triple Crown.
Though American Pharoah made it look relatively easy three years ago, the 37 years of futility that preceded him taught us the five-week test is maddeningly hard. So many excellent horses tried and failed for reasons of competition, health, stamina and luck.
Will one of those factors topple Justify, or will he become the 13th horse good enough to trample all questions? Here are five storylines to watch.
Did the Preakness indicate Justify is a tiring horse?
For perhaps the first time in his three-month blitz, Justify looked worn out as he approached the wire at Pimlico. Jockey Mike Smith said he eased him up slightly because he was confident victory was in hand. But by almost any measure, Justify’s performance in Baltimore was a step back from his 2½-length victory in the Derby.
As rival trainer Chad Brown noted the day before the Preakness, it’s extremely difficult for any young horse, even a great one, to improve race after race.
And Justify had already come so far since his maiden start Feb. 18. Not to mention he had to run on a mud-caked track for the second time in 15 days.
All of those factors might have kept him from showing his best. And he still won — the mark of an excellent horse and potentially a classic one.
But what does it mean going forward? Trainer Bob Baffert has said he expects Justify to rebound with a big effort at Belmont. The massive chestnut looked terrific the morning after the Preakness, and he breezed a half-mile in a striking 46.8 seconds Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs.
On the other hand, Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey and others have noted that the best horses often fool us by looking sensational in training. They’re so talented and professional that we can’t see how tired they are until they have to dig deep in a big race. The 1½-mile Belmont could offer Justify that kind of test.
The history of Belmont runners coming off tired efforts in the Preakness is poor. But the best horses, the Triple Crown winners, turn history on its head. The beauty is we probably won’t know until midway through the race.
Are any of the challengers threats if Justify is on his game?
Probably not. the resume race lengths than he Derby.
We have the usual array of returning challengers from the Derby, including seventh-place finisher Hofburg, who closed well despite a difficult trip, and Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso, whose owners feel he’s built for distance.
Tenfold made up significant He wins by more won the ground on a tired Justify in the stretch of the Preakness, and his Hall of Fame trainer, Steve Asmussen, seemed eager for a rematch.
Bravazo ran gamely in the Derby and Preakness, where he finished a close second. But his trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, calls Justify the King Kong of this class.
Lukas, 82, says you have to show up and run in case the big guy falters. That’s essentially the story for each of the 10 potential challengers.
Would the absence of Audible take away from Justify’s achievement?
This question is inevitable given that the same group owns the Triple Crown aspirant and his would-be top challenger.
In announcing that Audible will not run, trainer Todd Pletcher said his horse was not doing as well as he had been in the run-up to the Derby and he preferred to freshen him for the summer. But skeptics will say the ownership group, led by WinStar Farm, wanted to clear the way for Justify to win the Triple Crown and reap its financial rewards.
From a business standpoint, such a call would be understandable. From a pure sports standpoint, Audible’s absence is a bummer. He came into the Derby as highly touted as Justify, and after initial difficulty handling the mud at Churchill Downs, he ran as well as any horse over the second half of the race. He was the lone potential Belmont challenger who seemed a genuine threat.
If Justify wins the Triple Crown, would it be a lesser story than when American Pharoah won?
There’s no way to replicate 37 years of anticipation that set the backdrop for American Pharoah’s indelible run.
In the 1970s, when three horses won the Triple Crown in five years after a 25-year drought, there was talk of fatigue with the achievement. Affirmed, despite his stirring rivalry with Alydar, was probably not as celebrated as Secretariat.
None of this is Justify’s fault. If he pulls it off, we may come to view him and American Pharoah as a golden pair from the 2010s, just like we now see Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed as a set.
But as an in-the-moment event, his Belmont run probably won’t carry the same historic tension.
How much star quality does Justify bring?
We saw the limits with American Pharoah. His three races after the Triple Crown felt like festivals as casual fans flocked to celebrate a generational talent. But as industry analysts had warned, no one horse was going to reverse the business declines that have weakened racing in many parts of the country.
Justify could be a star of the same ilk. Like Pharoah, he’s trained by the enduring face of the sport in Baffert. He’s undefeated. He’s a magnificent-looking animal — about the same height as Pharoah but packing an extra 100 pounds of muscle.
The swiftness of Justify’s rise sets him apart from previous Triple Crown candidates. Even Baffert had not seen him run until January. As soon as he did, the Hall of Fame trainer knew he had another monster on his hands.
Given the barriers Justify already has smashed, this is a horse to remember even if he does not win at Belmont.