Are the Heat positioning themselves for 2020 offseason?
MIAMI — The benefit of Pat Riley and his live-intheMiami Heat approach is there are no Derek Jeterlike five-year plans, no publicly pushing long-term agendas that often are little more than bids to buy time.
The downside can be the stroke-of-midnight rush to Hassan Whiteside’s $98 million contract in 2016 or last summer’s cap reload with James Johnson, Dion Waiters andKelly Olynyk.
But at least the vision is clear, if also open to further debate.
That doesn’t mean there also isn’t an accompanying long view. The 2010 Big Three of LeBron James, DwyaneWade and Chris Bosh came together as a result of planning in the immediatewake of the 2006 championship. And that 2006 championship came together out of foresight following those tormenting playoff losses to theNewYork Knicks and then AlonzoMourning’s kidney illness.
Which brings us to this moment and another man of the moment, namely Magic Johnson and his vow to get the Los Angeles Lakers turned around within the next two years, aswe stand at this opening bell of 2018NBA free agency.
For Riley and theHeat, there also could be a twoyear plan at play, a 2020 vision, if you will, which would be the opposite of what Riley’s former Showtime Lakers championship guard is embracing in Los Angeles.
At the moment, without adding additional salary going forward, theHeat are committed to about $52 million in payroll for the 2020 offseason, an offseason when the projected salary cap is anticipated to potentially fall in the range of $113 million.
So even when counting the currentHeat contracts that extend into 2020-21, that still could leave enough to entice a pair of top-tier free agents just two summers fromnow.
That $52 million committed figure includes the $16 million player option of James Johnson, the $12.7 million to DionWaiters on the final year of his deal, the $12.2 million player option ofKelly Olynyk, the $10.9 million committed to Josh Richardson and the $350,000 stretch payment that still will be due already-released A.J. Hammons. It does not, however, include the $5.1 million 2020-21team option on BamAdebayo’s rookiescale deal.
What the get-out-of-capjail math means is that anything committed going forward to the 2020-21 payroll could not only prevent theHeat from doubling up in 2020 free agency, but also could impact even a single major free-agent addition in what sets up as theHeat’s next free-agency window.
(The 2019 offseason could advance that schedule, but that, at the moment, stands at the opt-out whims ofHassan Whiteside, GoranDragic and Tyler Johnson, each with a player option for 2019-20— unless two or more are dealt in advance.)
So if the plan is a 2020 reset, then theHeat very much already are on the clock this summer.
Most immediate is the approach withWayne Ellington, who played for $6.7 million this past season and is positioned with the Heat for an early-Bird deal that could start in the $10 million range next season. Getting beyond the luxurytax concerns (more of a concern to Micky Arison than to roster building), by going out more than two years on an Ellington contract with guaranteed money, it thenwould cut into the potential 2020 cap stash, even if there is a somewhat reasonable three-year, $21 million agreement.
Beyond that, there is the eligibility of J us ti se Win slow for a rookie-scale extension before next season’ s opener. Using Richardson’ s extension signed last summer as a point of reference, a similar extension forWinslowwould add about $11million to the Heat’s 2020-21payroll.
And then there is that fourth year on Adebayo’s contract.
So just factoring in adding Ellington, Winslowand Adebayo into the mix at those hypothetical numbers, the $52 million already committed to the Heat’s 2020-21payroll would jump to roughly $75 million (and that is not even factoring in salaries for the 2019 and 2020 firstround picks that theHeat possess).
In otherwords, we could be standing at a line in the sand, when Pat Riley makes a stand for a clearer future, a definitive reset date.
While it is not the Riley way to ignore the moment, because of some recent approaches it also might be the most prudent approach, a pair of playoff-contention (but not championship contention) seasons with a brighter light at the 2020 end of the tunnel. i win der man@ sun sentinel .com or Twitter @iraheatbeat