Leftist is Mexico’s new leader
President-elect appears less afraid of tension with U.S.
The populist is expected to usher in a sea change in the troubled relationship between the U.S.
MEXICO CITY — The U.S.-Mexico relationship could change dramatically under Mexican Presidentelect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who appears ready to put less of an emphasis on relations with the U.S. than his country’s other recent leaders and less afraid of angering his counterparts north of the border.
Lopez Obrador, who easily won the presidency in Sunday’s election and will take office in December, has rattled observers in Washington who are unsure about how he will conduct himself and Mexico’s foreign affairs.
The 65-year-old former mayor of Mexico City, a veteran leftist, has long favored a future for Mexico that is less dependent on the United States — a stark departure from numerous recent Mexican leaders who worked hand in glove with their American counterparts. His distrust of the United States is shaped in part by his biography and in part by his read on history.
The night of President Donald Trump’s election in 2016, Lopez Obrador wrote a message to his fellow Mexican citizens, urging them not to worry about the impact of Trump’s policies south of the Rio Grande.
“We must not forget that Mexico, by the effort and sacrifice of the fathers of our country, is a free, independent and sovereign country, not a colony, nor a protectorate,” he wrote. “It does not depend on any foreign government.”
Those patriotic musings, which he published last year in a book of essays called “Oye Trump” (Listen, Trump), offer insight into how Lopez Obrador may regard Mexico’s closest neighbor when he is sworn in as president Dec. 1.
Questions include how the new president would handle renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement; cooperation with the U.S. on drug-trafficking and immigration, and a united front against countries hostile to U.S. policy such as Venezuela.
“Mexican presidents have long seen their country’s future tied to the U.S., but Lopez Obrador is more skeptical,” said Andrew Selee, president of the Migration Policy Institute and the author of a recent book about U.S.-Mexico relations. “I don’t think he’s anti-American. But I think he’s distrustful of the U.S. and less invested in deepening ties with the U.S.”
Trump telephoned Lopez Obrador on Monday to congratulate him. They spoke for half an hour, talking about trade and border security, both men’s offices said.
State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said: “The United States and Mexico share a lasting friendship based on strong economic, cultural, and historical ties that bind our nations.” The United States, she added, “looks forward to deepening our vibrant partnership.”
His opponents often sought to portray Lopez Obrador as a leftist in the mold of Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez or the Castros of Cuba. But while Lopez Obrador advocates redistribution of wealth, he also values Mexico’s entrepreneur class and industries such as petroleum and gas exploitation.
If recent history is any indication, the first months of Lopez Obrador’s government are likely to see a Mexican cold shoulder toward the United States. When Enrique Pena Nieto was elected in 2012 to replace U.S.-friendly Felipe Calderon, he closed many of the relationships with the U.S. that had allowed U.S. and Mexican officials to work shoulder to shoulder on security and other issues.
Only after a year or so did Pena Nieto re-establish those ties. And then, after Trump was elected, the Mexican government managed to maintain a relationship despite insults and harsh rhetoric coming from the White House.
That was accomplished largely through a personal friendship between Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray and Trump’s sonin-law and senior adviser, Jared Kushner.
Lopez Obrador does not share such friendships. And that could have an impact on numerous aspects of the bilateral relationship, including the renegotiation of NAFTA.
“The Pena Nieto administration would go to great lengths to save NAFTA,” Selee said. “If President Trump wants to pull out, I don’t know how far Lopez Obrador will go to save it.”
Lopez Obrador has said he hopes to forge a relationship “based on friendship” with the U.S. But in rallies around the country in the months leading up to his election, he also expressed his frustration with the treatment of Latino immigrants in the U.S. and the devastating impact of lowcost American agricultural imports on Mexico’s farmers.
In AMLO, as Lopez Obrador is known, Mexicans elected a strong defender of Mexico, said Jason Marczak, at the Washington think tank the Atlantic Council. “Don’t expect him to acquiesce to U.S. demands,” Marczak said.