Scott leads Nelson in poll of South Florida Hispanic voters

Gov. Rick Scott has a slight lead over U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson among Hispanic voters in South Florida, a new poll finds.

The WSCV-TELEMUNDO 51 Poll found Republican Scott with support of 42 percent of Hispanic likely voters in Broward, Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. Democrat Nelson has 39 percent. Another 19 percent of South Florida Hispanics were undecided.

The poll of South Florida Hispanic voters was conducted over landlines and cellphones June 24-29 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy. The Jacksonvillebased has a “B+” grade in the poll ratings from the political data website Fivethirtyeight.com.

The survey of 696 likely Hispanic voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

Term limits prevent Scott from seeking a third term as governor, so he’s challenging Nelson, who is seeking a fourth term in the Senate.

Multiple polls have shown the Scott-Nelson race is a nail-biter, and Hispanic voters are a significant voting bloc in Florida. Results from South Florida don’t necessarily indicate what will happen in other areas, such as Central Florida with its growing Puerto Rican population.

A recent statewide poll of Puerto Ricans had good news for Scott: He was better known than Nelson and had higher approval ratings.

Among Cuban-Americans, Scott is ahead 58 percent to 30 percent, with 12 percent undecided. And among non-Cuban Hispanics, Nelson had 50 percent to Scott’s 22 percent, with 28 percent undecided.

Mason-Dixon managing director Brad Coker offered these takeaways by email Thursday: “Scott is solidifying support among the generally more GOP-leaning Cuban-American voters. And while Nelson leads among non-Cuban Hispanics, a very significant 28 percent are undecided — meaning he has a lot of work to do there. Scott is doing a full-court press with Puerto Rican voters, usually strongly Democratic, so Nelson is facing a tougher task than in his previous campaigns.”

Other findings from the WSCV-TELEMUNDO 51 Poll:

■ Nelson is far ahead of Scott — 56 percent to 25 percent — in Broward, which is more Democratic than Miami-Dade County and doesn’t have as large a share of Cuban-Americans. In Miami-Dade County, Scott leads Nelson 47 percent to 34 percent.

■ Nelson has the support of 77 percent of Hispanic Democrats, Scott has support of 83 percent of Hispanic Republicans, and independents split 41 percent for Nelson, 31 percent for Scott, and 28 percent undecided.

Smaller subgroups, such as Hispanics in Broward, can have a much larger margin of error than the overall poll.