Results in U.S. Senate race stay the same
Despite millions of dollars in television ad spending, Florida’s U.S. Senate race between Bill Nelson and Rick Scott hasn’t budged.
A Florida Atlantic University poll shows Republican Scott with 44 percent of voters surveyed, Democrat Nelson with 40 percent.
The new results, from a poll conducted Friday and Saturday, are exactly the same as the percentages from an FAU poll released May 8.
That’s a four-point advantage in Scott’s favor, but it’s within the survey’s margin of error, which means the race could be tied — or Scott could have a lead.
The FAU Business and Economics Polling Initiative survey of 800 Florida registered voters was conducted online and through automated calls to people with landline telephones. Researchers said it had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Nelson is seeking a fourth term. Scott has served two terms as governor but can’t run for re-election because of term limits.
The poll results indicate Nelson is well known, and Scott is very well known.
Nelson’s approval was 37 percent, with 32 percent disapproval and 31 percent neutral or not having an opinion.
Scott had 50 percent approval, 32 percent disapproval, with 18 percent neutral or not having an opinion.
Kevin Wagner, a political scientist at FAU and research fellow at the polling initiative, said it’s difficult to change the dynamics of a race in which the candidates are familiar to voters.
“It’s harder to move public opinion when people already have an opinion,” he said, explaining it’s easier to shape opinions — in a positive direction or a negative direction — if people don’t know the candidate. “It’s much harder when people have formed an opinion to move that opinion because people tend not to change their minds.”
In the latest survey, 17 percent of voters were undecided, statistically the same as the 16 percent undecided in May.
With a close race and few undecided voters, Wagner said the outcome likely will depend on which side can best motivate its voters to make sure they actually cast ballots and less on trying to persuade undecided voters.
NBC News reported this month that more money is being spent on TV advertising in Florida’s U.S. Senate race than anywhere else in the country.
NBC News, which regularly reports ad spending data from Advertising Analytics, found Senate race ad spending in Florida through July 9 was $26.2 million.