Dolphins are in first, but Vegas still likes the Patriots

For Miami Dolphins fans, the terms undefeated and first place have made for a pleasant Monday morning. In New England, the sky is falling. But if you want to take emotion out of the equation and get some perspective on how the AFC East picture shifted Sunday, there’s probably no better place to look than Las Vegas.

Despite the Dolphins (3-0) holding a two-game edge on the Patriots (1-2) heading into the teams’ Week 4 showdown, the wise guys in the desert still see New England as the favorite to win the AFC East for a 10th straight season. This morning, VegasInsider.com has the Patriots at 1/3 to win the division. (That means if you bet $100 on them to win the division right now, you would profit $33 if that happens.)

The Dolphins are getting 5/2 odds. So, bet $100 and profit $250.

Now, if you think Vegas is shorting Miami, take note: The Dolphins’ odds are twice as good as they were at this time last week (5/1), while the Patriots’ odds have been cut in half (they were 1/6).

So, Week 3 shifted the odds considerably, and if you’re really feeling good about the Dolphins (and live in a place where gambling is legal) this could be the week to pounce. If the Dolphins win Sunday afternoon — where they’ve been installed as a touchdown underdog in Foxboro — they could become the favorite, and their payout for a division-winning bet will diminish quite a bit more.

Another sign that the Dolphins are moving in the right direction: Their odds to win the Super Bowl went from 66/1 last Monday to 40/1. That means you can still pocket $4,000 if you can picture Ryan Tannehill lifting the Lombardi Trophy in Atlanta the first Sunday in February. But that’s a lot less than the almost 7 grand you had coming if you bet them when they entered the season with the worst Super Bowl odds in the NFL.

The Patriots, by comparison, have gone from 7/1 to win the Super Bowl at the start of the season to 15/2 last week and now 10/1 after last night’s loss to the previously winless Lions. New England is 4/1 to reach the Super Bowl, while Miami comes in at 16/1.

In other words, Vegas is taking note of the Dolphins’ strong start and the Patriots’ struggles. But they’re not willing to hand over the crown just yet.